News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The US dollar is unloved, oversold and at lows last seen over 30-months ago. At the moment there seems to be very little reason to buy the greenback. Get your $USD market update from @nickcawley1 here:https://t.co/VY3SLs35cp https://t.co/w5ljByv9cf
  • Trading Forex is not a shortcut to instant wealth, excessive leverage can magnify losses, and sentiment is a powerful indicator. Learn about these principles in depth here: https://t.co/lZFM8youtX https://t.co/CpqePQYF4E
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/Rg2YGZCUCr
  • The non-farm payroll (NFP) figure is a key economic indicator for the United States economy. It is also referred to as the monthly market mover. Find out why it has been given this nickname here: https://t.co/yOUVEEqhc5 https://t.co/ftrbRkFiJF
  • Human error in the forex market is common and often leads to familiar trading mistakes. These trading mistakes crop up particularly with novice traders on a regular basis. Learn about the top ten trading mistakes and how you can avoid them here: https://t.co/i8E2AXtzF3 https://t.co/Hny2HMYo4I
  • (Weekly Fundamental) Australian Dollar Outlook: Tied to Biden Stimulus Bets, S&P 500, US Dollar, Treasuries $AUDUSD #SP500 #stimulusbill #USD https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/aud/2021/01/16/Australian-Dollar-Outlook-Tied-to-Biden-Stimulus-Bets-SP-500-US-Dollar-Treasuries.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/H7aus0Aljt
  • The inside bar pattern occurs regularly within financial markets. Incorporating the inside bar strategy can enhance a trader's market analysis. Find out how more here: https://t.co/E3EWOYTYNw https://t.co/7zI3p6UNVs
  • Bank of Japan to mull widening of its long-term yield band -BBG $USDJPY
  • While the rise in longer-dated Treasury yields have been impressive as of late, March highs remain a key focus for resistance The medium-term uptrend remains intact, maintained by rising support from August Fading fiscal stimulus expectations (size) may sour yields ahead https://t.co/L3vBcF0ts7
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here: https://t.co/rz7fqhRoMG https://t.co/vFJ8zmphMm
Likely scenarios for Gold price

Likely scenarios for Gold price

2014-01-24 21:31:00
Research, Research Team

Main Points

  • This is decisive moment for gold, a further move will set medium term price direction for yellow metal
  • Resistance seen around $1272
  • Retracement from current level is also a possibility
  • Investors eye FOMC January meeting

Gold on Friday closed at $1253 per ounce, just above $1250, a crucial resistance level. We saw a tough fight between bulls and beers around $1250 last week. Now I see two possible scenarios for Gold next week, the first one is bullish and the other is bearish.

Scenario 1 (Bullish)

According to first scenario yellow metal should keep continue upward movement till $1272, a very important 50% fib level as shown in following daily chart;

gold_price_fomc_body_Picture_2.png, Likely scenarios for Gold price

If this ongoing upward wave on daily chart prints a high around $1272, it would confirm our medium term bullish bias about gold and in that case a surge up to $1375 in coming weeks should not be considered an unusual thing.

Although a reversal from $1272 is the most likely case in my opinion, however if gold extends gain up to $1292 or above, even then the above mentioned forecast will remain same because in both the cases we would get Higher High (HH) on daily chart which is believed to be a very strong indication of bullish momentum.

Scenario 2 (Bearish)

According to second scenario gold may take retracement from current level and then extend downside movement up to $1227 in order to print a Lower Low (LL) on daily chart.

gold_price_fomc_body_Picture_1.png, Likely scenarios for Gold price

A LL on daily chart would turn our medium term bias about gold to bearish thus threatening the double bottom price pattern which is obvious on weekly chart.

In above mentioned two scenarios, the first one seems more likely because keeping in view the worst yearly loss in more than three decades last year, a notable correction is due in bullion price which does not require any catalyst.

Unlike silver, we do not see supply concerns about gold as the cost of mining recorded in third quarter of last year was significantly lower than the current market price. The lowest cash costs associated with yellow metal were recorded in Indonesia that were $414 / ounce; whereas maximum costs were $928 / ounce in South Africa, well below the current price in open market.

It is also to be noted that FOMC officials are due to meet later this month in which they will be considering more tapering in monthly bond-buying program worth $75 billion after they decided to cut Quantitative Easing (QE) by $10 billion in their last meeting. This crucial meeting, that is scheduled on 28-29 January, may keep the price of gold in a tight range as investors usually remain cautious ahead of such high profile fundamental events.

Minutes of FOMC December meeting showed that some policy makers wanted to strengthen Fed forward guidance through more precise explanation on central bank’s monetary policy stance if jobless rate reaches 6.5% threshold. In light of a recent report released by labor department that showed unemployment rate at 6.7% in December, the lowest level since 2008, we will be monitoring closely if FOMC considers suggestion of strengthening forward guidance in forthcoming meeting.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES