News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 Nationwide Housing Prices YoY (NOV) due at 07:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 5.4% Previous: 5.8% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-27
  • What are some factors impacting Euro’s forecast this quarter? Get your free forecast here: https://t.co/kpBYVz31Bd https://t.co/dRmLKUEaAM
  • 🇫🇮 GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q3) Actual: -2.7% Previous: -6.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-27
  • 🇫🇮 GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final (Q3) Actual: 3.3% Previous: -3.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-27
  • 🇫🇮 GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final (Q3) Actual: 3.3 Previous: -3.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-27
  • 🇫🇮 GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final (Q3) Actual: 3.3 Previous: -4.5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-27
  • 🇫🇮 GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q3) Actual: -2.7 Previous: -6.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-27
  • Heads Up:🇫🇮 GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final (Q3) due at 06:00 GMT (15min) Previous: -4.5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-27
  • Heads Up:🇫🇮 GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q3) due at 06:00 GMT (15min) Previous: -6.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-27
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 95.09%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 73.48%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/b4kJ0Qob1K
The Case for a Dollar Relief Rally

The Case for a Dollar Relief Rally

2013-10-21 14:03:00
Boris Schlossberg, Technical Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

  • Why Shutdown Costs Could Be Overblown
  • The Case for a Dollar Relief Rally
  • All-Important US NFP Data Due Tuesday

It's been an extremely quiet start to the trading week with most major currency pairs tracing out very narrow 20-point ranges during the Asian and early-European sessions. It certainly seems as if traders are simply biding their time while preparing for tomorrow’s September US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, the release of which was delayed by the US government shutdown.

With the debt debate and shutdown now over (for now), the FX markets are trying to get back to business as focus begins to shift from political news to economic data. The key question going forward will be just how much the political impasse cost the US economy at large.

There is no doubt that the standoff in DC soured consumer sentiment and certainly reduced some government demand in Q4, but with all the furloughed government employees assured their back pay and the quick resumption of government work, the overall impact may wind up being be less than initially feared.

The fact that the US budget negotiations were resolved well before the key Christmas selling season may also be a positive for Q4 US GDP. In short, after being battered for the better part of the month, the US dollar (USD) may be due for some relief as bargain hunters begin to probe for a near-term bottom.

The Case for a Dollar Relief Rally

While all the high-beta currencies remain relatively well bid against the buck while supported in part by slightly better risk sentiment, the dollar has shown some small gains against the Japanese yen (JPY) with USDJPY popping through Friday's highs of 98.15.

The only economic report of note was the Japanese trade balance, which recorded its 15th consecutive monthly deficit and printed at JPY -1.09 trillion versus -1.06 trillion projected. Exports were up 11.5% versus 15.4% expected, and Imports increased 16.5% versus 19.9% forecast.

Comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) governor Haruhiko Kuroda provided nothing new for the market, but the central bank leader did note that the Japanese economy was recovering moderately and that CPI is likely to rise gradually. Kuroda reaffirmed the BoJ's commitment to continue easing until the 2% inflation target is reached and remained stable at that level.

One of the key reasons why the dollar continues to perform better against the yen as compared to other major currencies is because Japanese policymakers remain highly accommodative while trying to match the Federal Reserve step for step in terms of monetary policy.

The All-Important Data Point This Week

For now, monetary authorities in other G10 nations have taken a decidedly nonchalant attitude to recent dollar weakness. However, if US economic data continues to disappoint and pushes the dollar lower, the rhetoric from US trading partners is likely to become more cautionary.

All eyes will turn to tomorrow’s US NFP data with markets anticipating a print near the 180K level. If the numbers are close to expectations, the greenback could see a relief rally as the week wears on.

By Boris Schlossberg of BK Asset Management

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES