News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The South African rand has continued its depreciation against the U.S. dollar this week after the Evergrande default probability remains. Get your $USDZAR market update from @WVenketas here:
  • What is more concerning than just US equities down or global equities being down is that 'risk' across the board is under serious pressure. The more intense and persistent this trend, the greater the risk it turns self-sustaining
  • It's rare event where the buy-and-hold, long volatility crowd do a victory lap and say their formal 'I knew it'. The $VXX short-term volatility ETF is up sharply on heavy volume. One of my 'early warning' signals
  • Coinbase will drop its plans to launch its crypto lending program that was under regulatory scrutiny
  • $SPX Daily- Levels Discussed in today's Webinar. . .
  • Canadian Dollar Price Forecast: USD/CAD Spikes, Pulls Back - Loonie Levels $USDCAD
  • Technical Setups: $USD Majors, #Gold, #Oil, $SPX & #Bitcoin ahead of #FOMC (Webinar Archive) -
  • Airline stocks retracing losses, some already in positive territory, despite the large sell-off in the market. News that the US will overhaul its COVID-19 travel rules and lift some restrictions are good news for the airline industry $JETS $UAL $AAL $ALK
  • The S&P 500 have taken a clear dive to start the week and fear of full risk aversion is gaining traction. DailyFX's @JohnKicklighter discusses what to expect in the markets this week!
  • $USD still pulling back from resistance. 93.43 was the Q1 swing high, still playing a role in $DXY support potential around prior res, ~93.20
The Only Way This Fiscal Fiasco Can Get Worse

The Only Way This Fiscal Fiasco Can Get Worse

Kathy Lien, Technical Strategist

The US debt-ceiling debate has weighed on the dollar and stocks, but it seems unthinkable and unlikely that political posturing will cause the US to default on its debt, which is the only truly deadly outcome.

The US dollar (USD) extended lower while stocks dropped more than 1% Thursday on the back of growing concerns that the US government will default on its debt. Another day has now passed with no meaningful progress in Washington, and as a result, the risk of default has increased. The Senate refuses to accept anything outside of a clean spending bill, while the House refuses to disconnect the Affordable Care Act—commonly known as Obamacare—from its spending bill.

Despite the growing risks, we firmly believe that Congress and/or the Obama Administration will not let the government miss any interest payments because the consequences are just too catastrophic. Furthermore, since we haven't seen an all-out collapse of the dollar and stocks, most investors probably feel that the chance of default is very slim as well.

Nonetheless, the market is eyeing the move in US Treasury bills with both caution and fear. The one-month T-bill rate rose to its highest level since November today, while credit default swaps surged by the largest amount since 2009. The US government has never defaulted on its debt, but some investors are now hedging against this possibility.

See related: 2 US Budget Resolutions to Consider…and Fast

In addition, the longer the political showdown in Washington continues, the greater the chances that the Federal Reserve will defer tapering of asset purchases until 2014. In fact, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said point blank that the government shutdown vindicates the Fed's decision to delay tapering, which virtually eliminates the chances for a move this month.

See also: Clear Proof That Now’s No Time for Tapering

2 Catalysts Catapulting the Euro (EUR)

The euro (EUR) extended higher on the back of better-than-expected economic data. Eurozone retail sales surged in the month of August despite slower consumer spending in Germany and France. PMI services were also revised higher thanks to stronger activity in France and Italy. Unfortunately, Germany seems to be the weakest link these days, as the country’s PMI manufacturing and services were both revised lower this week.

EURUSD has been a big beneficiary of the recent improvements in the Eurozone data and concerns about the US debt ceiling, and the pair has been helped further along by the ongoing resolution of Italy's political crisis.

The last step remaining is the expulsion of former leader Silvio Berlusconi, and the Senate will begin that process tomorrow. They will have to decide whether his conviction on charges of tax fraud is a violation of an anti-corruption law. If the sub-committee recommends that he be expelled, the full Senate would vote on the matter in the coming weeks.

Italy's political crisis is not completely behind us, but Premier Enrico Letta's victory significantly weakens Berlusconi's influence, and if and when he is finally expelled, we could see another relief rally in the euro. In the meantime, EURUSD has climbed to its highest level in seven months, and from here, there's no major resistance for the pair until its one-and-a-half-year high of 1.3710.

GBPUSD Hit by Sudden Profit Taking

For the first time in five trading days, the British pound (GBP) weakened against the US dollar. In fact, the selloff in GBPUSD was so strong that it also triggered a very sharp rally in EURGBP.

While the UK economy has been performing very well, the latest PMI reports suggest that the recovery may be losing momentum. Today, we learned that service sector activity slowed slightly, with the PMI services index falling from 60.5 to 60.3. The index remains near record highs, but combined with the slight declines in the PMI construction and manufacturing reports, it has been enough for some sterling traders to cut their long positions.

House prices also failed to grow at a faster pace last month, according to Halifax. We still believe that the UK economy will outperform and that the Bank of England (BoE) is done easing, but for the time being, we would not rule out additional profit taking in sterling. No UK economic reports are scheduled for release on Friday.

By Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.