News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @michaeljburry: Read thread.
  • The Australian Dollar has retraced from August lows when looking at AUD/JPY and AUD/CAD. However, the AUD/NZD downtrend is intact, will a reversal there appear as well? Find out:
  • The S&P 500, Dow Jones and DAX 30 could be at risk of falling as retail traders continue increasing their upside exposure in these indices. What are the key technical levels to watch for? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • The US Dollar continues to hold its ground against most ASEAN currencies as recent downtrends lose momentum. What is the road ahead for USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/PHP and USD/IDR? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • The Canadian Dollar has been caught in broad ranges against the Euro and the US Dollar, but can the upside bias in USD/CAD and EUR/CAD prolong? Find out here:
  • Want to hear my thoughts on the US Dollar? Check out yesterday's recording with #AuzBiz hosted by @KaraOrdway on 'The Trade' We discussed a #USD index, Treasury yields, $USDJPY, $AUDUSD and $NZDUSD
  • Gold has plunged nearly 5% off the Monthly high with the sell-off now probing key weekly support here at 1738/47- looking for a pivot here with the Fed interest rate decision on tap. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @MBForex here:
  • Feels like the market has been front-running next week’s FOMC announcement, which will reveal updated dot plot projections. Expectations clearly set for a more hawkish shift in guidance. That said, if the Fed does not deliver, US Dollar bulls could be disappointed. $USD $DXY
  • USD/CAD has been chopping around the past week-and-a-half, offering virtually no cues on its next direction. Get your market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here:
  • FDA panel votes 16-3 against approving Covid-19 booster shots - BBG
3 US Political Decisions with Big FX Impact

3 US Political Decisions with Big FX Impact

Kathy Lien, Technical Strategist

Wednesday’s Fed policy decision is the biggest one of all, but ongoing debate regarding the next Fed Chairman and a looming deadline for the debt ceiling this month are weighing on the US dollar, too.

The US dollar (USD) continued to trade lower against all major currencies this morning with the exception of the Japanese yen (JPY). While the lack of big moves in the FX market suggests that traders are just biding their time ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, extension in such pairs as AUDUSD and NZDUSD reflects hesitation about holding dollars.

According to positioning data, the market is still very long dollars, and the risk of disappointment this week is high. Unfortunately, the dialogue out of Washington is not helping the greenback, either.

Controversy Regarding the Next Fed President?

Not only is the Fed's looming policy decision on Wednesday expected to be inadequate, but reports that the White House wants to take more time to decide who to nominate as the next Federal Reserve Chairman raises fresh concerns. As Janet Yellen is now the clear front-runner, it should be a no-brainer for President Obama, and he should be able to make the announcement by the end of this week or the beginning of next week, at the latest. She's been the more palatable choice all along, has extensive experience guiding monetary policy, and was a key architect of the quantitative easing (QE) program. Furthermore, Yellen is an advocate of forward guidance and a keen economist with a deep understanding of the pressures facing the US economy and the consequences of monetary policy.

However, concerns about her leadership style and her lack of a deep working relationship with the Presidential administration could be two reasons why Obama is hesitating. In general, President Obama prefers team players, and Yellen is more an activist and leader who urged her counterparts at the Fed—including current Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke—to share her views.

Debt Ceiling Rears Its Ugly Head Again

At the same time, talk about the debt ceiling and a potential government shutdown is also gaining traction this morning following comments from Treasury Secretary Jack Lew, who said Congress should not wait until the eleventh hour to raise the debt ceiling.

For the past four months, the US government has been using emergency measures to avoid breaching the $16.7 trillion debt ceiling, and based on the current level of spending, the government could run out of cash by October, which could force a government shutdown in late September.

The last time the US government was officially shut down was in late 1995 and early 1996. A standoff between Democrats and Republicans shuttered the government during the Clinton Administration for five days in November 1995 and then for 21 days between December 15 and January 6. In both cases, the US Dollar Index dropped more than 0.65% before recovering quickly once Federal offices were reopened.

As a result, FX traders shouldn't be overly concerned about a government shutdown because the impact on the dollar is expected to be short-lived.

The Biggest Decision of Them All

Finally, the main focus is, of course, the Federal Reserve monetary policy decision this Wednesday, and we will cover that in greater detail leading up to the event. This morning's consumer price report confirmed that inflationary pressures in the US are virtually non-existent, so if the central bank wants to keep monetary policy at current levels, it certainly can.

See also: The Only 2 Reasons Left to Taper Now

CPI growth slowed to 0.1% in the month of August, down from 0.2% the month prior. Year-over-year gains dropped to 1.5% from 2.0%. Annualized core prices grew slightly faster, but are still running at very low levels.

Housing market activity held steady in September, but only after the August NAHB housing market index was revised down from 59 to 58. According to the Treasury, foreign purchases of US assets increased in July, with demand for Treasuries rising by $31.1 billion, up from sales of $67 billion the prior month. Japanese investors were the biggest buyers, accounting for $52 billion in demand.

By Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.