News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in USD/CHF are long at 75.66%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 80.85%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/6HUk3bQSWf
  • Commodities Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.51% Silver: 0.41% Gold: 0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/azFkkb8xyo
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/9S5tXIs3SX https://t.co/d4NaJvgweB
  • Forex Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.33% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.22% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.15% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.08% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.02% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.03% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/jceRBGUO6d
  • 🇨🇳 Unemployment Rate (MAY) Actual: 5.2% Previous: 5.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-16
  • 🇨🇳 Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY (MAY) Actual: 15.4% Expected: 16.9% Previous: 19.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-16
  • 🇨🇳 Industrial Production YoY (MAY) Actual: 8.8% Expected: 9% Previous: 9.8% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-16
  • 🇨🇳 Retail Sales YoY (MAY) Actual: 12.4% Expected: 13.6% Previous: 17.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-16
  • Indices Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.20% FTSE 100: 0.13% Germany 30: 0.10% US 500: -0.01% Wall Street: -0.09% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/2wsbvN5ZzC
  • Heads Up:🇨🇳 Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY (MAY) due at 07:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 16.9% Previous: 19.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-16
A Pair of GBP Trades That Look to Be in Play

A Pair of GBP Trades That Look to Be in Play

Kathy Lien, Technical Strategist

Comparatively stronger UK economic conditions have given the British pound a leadership role, and while the Eurozone and US continue to lag, selective GBPUSD and EURGBP trades look especially promising.

The British pound (GBP) ended Thursday unchanged against the US dollar (USD) and euro (EUR). No UK economic reports were released, and while we heard from a number of Bank of England (BoE) policymakers, including Governor Mark Carney and monetary policy committee (MPC) members David Miles, Paul Fisher, and Ian McCafferty, their speeches were similar and the comments posed no threat to the currency.

All acknowledged the recent improvements in the UK economy, with some saying that it has gained momentum. They also expressed hesitations, which ranged from the recovery being very new to the fact that there are elevated risks still facing the economy.

While we are can argue that the central bank, on balance, has grown more optimistic, Carney also made it very clear that the BoE would not change the level of quantitative easing (QE) until the unemployment rate falls to 7%, which is a position that has been clearly stated in the past.

What is interesting is that while Carney said additional stimulus is possible if the economy needs it, he also added later on that the BoE would have "no problem with raising rates if needed."

Current BoE forecasts call for the 7% unemployment level to be reached in 2016, but the market is pricing in tightening in January 2015. To this point, Carney said investors and economists simply disagree.

While monetary policy is expected to remain unchanged for the foreseeable future, if next week's UK economic reports continue to surprise to the upside, we would not be surprised to see GBPUSD trade at the lofty 1.60 level.

A Much Different Story for the Euro

As noted, the euro ended Thursday unchanged against the dollar and pound, which was actually impressive after Eurozone industrial production dropped five times more than expected in the month of July, raising fresh concerns about the region's underperformance.

While the drop was not unexpected given the decline in German and French output, the magnitude of the deterioration was surprising. We believe that the outlook can worsen, too, putting additional pressure on the shared currency and potentially driving EURUSD below 1.31.

As we saw today, however, EURUSD may not be the biggest victim of euro weakness. Instead, steeper losses could be seen in euro crosses like EURGBP and EURNZD.

European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi expressed the same amount of skepticism as we heard at the beginning of the month after the ECB meeting. Draghi said the Eurozone recovery is still "very, very green," and he doesn't share the market's enthusiasm about a potential return to form.

Draghi also feels that the rise in money market rates is unwarranted, but believes that forward guidance has been successful in ushering rates lower and decreasing volatility.

In the monthly bulletin, the ECB reiterated its pledge to keep rates low for an extended period of time. While confidence indicators confirm gradual recovery, policymakers "remain particularly attentive to the implications" of a "gradual reduction in excess liquidity."

Meanwhile, the Italian Senate has postponed its vote on the embattled Silvio Berlusconi until next Wednesday, September 18.

See also: The Political Problem Pool Gets Even Deeper

By Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES