News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex quotes reflect the price of different currencies at any point in time. Since a trader’s profit or loss is determined by movements in price, it is essential to develop a sound understanding of how to read currency pairs. Learn how to read quotes here: https://t.co/CNtqrKWDBY https://t.co/stMPuq0VXR
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here: https://t.co/7t4BzmLg8w https://t.co/v6RGICQvge
  • Get your snapshot update of the of top level exchanges and key index performance from around the globe here: https://t.co/d8Re5anlG5 https://t.co/rws9LHJV3E
  • RT @FxWestwater: Japanese Yen Forecast: JPY Crosses Eye BoJ, CPI as Haven Flows Bolster Yen Strength Link: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/jpy/2021/09/18/Japanese-Yen-Forecast-JPY-Crosses-Eye-BoJ-CPI-as-Haven-Flows-Bolster-Yen-Strength.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Westwater&utm_campaign=twr https:/…
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/9S5tXIs3SX https://t.co/FVisZuTP6M
  • Stocks appear to be in a corrective phase but could get put to the test; levels and lines to watch in the days ahead. Get your weekly equities forecast from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/H1BaTlIHjY https://t.co/zP3mjfslSD
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here: https://t.co/4jsORznRTE https://t.co/Of1thU4zXw
  • Further your forex knowledge and gain insights from our expert analysts on AUD with our free guide, available today: https://t.co/p2FhEwym1E https://t.co/MjiYB85TSF
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/BdgFmkRxVw https://t.co/fIO9TP7D62
  • Trading Forex is not a shortcut to instant wealth, excessive leverage can magnify losses, and sentiment is a powerful indicator. Learn about these principles in depth here: https://t.co/lZFM8youtX https://t.co/Xja8DHUqlH
2 Rock-Solid Ranges for EUR/USD, GBP/USD

2 Rock-Solid Ranges for EUR/USD, GBP/USD

Kathy Lien, Technical Strategist

Even with important US and European economic data due out this week, recent range boundaries in both EURUSD and GBPUSD are likely to hold until traders get more clarity about Fed tapering in the weeks ahead.

The US dollar (USD) may be trading higher against all major currencies, but the lack of US economic data gives us the opportunity to discuss the outlook for the euro (EUR) and British pound (GBP), two currencies with top-tier data scheduled for release this week.

The main driver of dollar strength today is renewed expectations for Fed tapering. Last week, the S&P 500 found a top at 1709, and futures were pointing to a lower open. The selloff in global equities reflects ongoing concerns that Fed tapering will lead to a slower recovery in the US economy.

In contrast to Germany and the UK, where there have been upside surprises in recent data, US economic reports have been tepid. Therefore, whether the dollar is poised for further losses in August or geared for a stronger recovery largely hinges on Tuesday's US retail sales report.

Economists expect consumer spending growth to slow, but with the International Council of Shopping Centers and Johnson Redbook both reporting stronger sales, there is a reasonable chance for an upside surprise, which could extend gains for the greenback.

See related: US Data the Dollar Is Counting on

However, if this week's Eurozone and UK economic reports beat expectations as well, the gains in the dollar will be limited. Given the recent trend of European data, we believe that despite the significance of the releases from both sides of the Atlantic this week, EURUSD should trade between 1.3100 and 1.3450, and GBPUSD between 1.53 and 1.57.

In other words, we expect recent ranges to remain intact as investors weigh the growth outlook in Europe with the prospects for Fed tapering. For the Eurozone, the German ZEW survey on Tuesday and German Q2 GDP report on Wednesday are the key data points.

There has been a general trend of improvements in the German manufacturing sector that should lift investor confidence, but the sharp decline in retail sales in Q2 may have dampened growth in the quarter. If German GDP fails to live up to market expectations, EURUSD could slide to the bottom of the range indicated above.

In the UK, Wednesday's employment report and Thursday's retail sales releases are important, but the real market mover should be the Bank of England (BoE) meeting minutes. The central bank left monetary policy unchanged, but the main question is how many monetary policy committee members, if any, voted in favor of more asset purchases, and also how many members voted for the new unemployment rate threshold?

If we learn that some members voted for additional asset purchases and the decision for an unemployment rate threshold was unanimous, GBPUSD could experience additional losses. However, if no one favored more quantitative easing (QE) and some members opposed the threshold—which was the BoE's attempt to stress its plans to keep monetary policy very easy for a very long time—GBPUSD could break above 1.56.

By Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES