News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out: https://t.co/td5WA4hCZC https://t.co/cQwbeZ6Feq
  • #Oil prices saw a reprieve to the recent selling pressure but remain at risk while below downtrend resistance. Here are the levels that matter on the #WTI technical chart. Get your #commodities update from @MBForex here: https://t.co/CcXsF3JCMH https://t.co/RUmS1cX52v
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here: https://t.co/5uSWKoLkd6 https://t.co/boEI8RuQdC
  • The growth-linked New Zealand Dollar may rise on the upcoming #RBNZ rate decision following rosy economic data. However, downside potential in the S&P 500 could offset $NZDUSD gains. Get your #currencies update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/LfCe6C6G3P https://t.co/kUeBxxeaEf
  • It was a quiet week in Aussie as $AUDUSD put in its second consecutive week of indecision. But taking a more granular look highlights the potential for a reversal scenario. Get your #currencies update from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/PPK20nubAf https://t.co/0nfmRRFNnz
  • The S&P 500 pushed the market's comfort with a head-and-shoulders pattern through Friday's close. What should we look for in technical patterns, overlapping fundamental tides and speculative positioning for the likes of $EURUSD next week? https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/09/19/EURUSD-Pressure-Building-while-Anxious-Traders-Weigh-Did-SP-500-Break.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9 https://t.co/lgVJVwi8th
  • Sterling remains trapped by overarching fundamentals drivers and both $GBPUSD and $EURGBP are going to have to wait until the Brexit dust settles. Get your #currencies update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/vF1K1cy0nd https://t.co/NSA7qiQihc
  • Key levels in forex tend to draw attention to traders in the market. These are psychological prices which tie into the human psyche and way of thinking. Learn about psychological levels here:https://t.co/1oygcFMFNs https://t.co/d9EmTOHyTv
  • Traders tend to overcomplicate things when they’re starting out in the forex market. This fact is unfortunate but undeniably true.Simplify your trading strategy with these four indicators here:https://t.co/A4dqGMPylo https://t.co/xqbUxwWgTZ
  • An economic calendar is a resource that allows traders to learn about important economic information scheduled to be released. Stay up to date on the most important global economic data here: https://t.co/JdvW6HNuqV https://t.co/Gi8LHCT5sB
The Fed's Likely Message This Week

The Fed's Likely Message This Week

2013-06-18 13:50:00
Kathy Lien, Technical Strategist
Share:

Look for the Fed to stay its course regarding its plans for tapering asset purchases while at the same time emphasizing the continuation of “extremely accommodative” monetary policies.

The price action in the FX market today is very similar to what we saw at the beginning of last week: The US dollar (USD) is trading strongly against high-beta currencies such as the British pound (GBP) and all three commodity dollars (AUD, NZD, and CAD), but is weaker against the euro (EUR) and Swiss franc (CHF). The only outlier is USDJPY, which extended gains into the North American session.

While equity futures are basically unchanged, the fact that US ten-year Treasury yields are closing in on 2.2% indicates that we have a segmented market right now, as well as renewed deleveraging in the commodity dollars.

It is clear that there is more confusion than clarity regarding the Federal Reserve’s intentions because the latest market swings were triggered by articles from Fed watchers speculating about what Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will say on Wednesday.

See also: For Fed, There’s More Confusion Than Clarity

Last week, Wall Street Journal columnist Jon Hilsenrath predicted that the Fed will make a point to downplay expectations and distinguish the difference between tapering and tightening. This week, the Financial Times wrote that Bernanke will signal that the Fed is close to tapering. We are amazed that the markets were surprised by these articles because they don't say anything new.

Since the last Fed meeting, a number of policymakers have indicated the central bank could taper asset purchases in a few months, and some of the same officials have also said that monetary policy will remain extremely accommodative. We believe this is the same message that will be conveyed at tomorrow’s much-anticipated meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

See related: The Key FX Event for This Week

This morning's US economic data was not much help, however. Consumer prices rose 0.1%, and excluding food and energy, prices rose 0.2% in May. Housing starts rebounded 6.8% after dropping 14.8% the previous month, while building permits dropped 3.1% after rising 12.9% the month prior. For the most part, inflationary pressures remain muted and the housing market continues to recover.

Today’s Best (and Worst) Performers

Meanwhile, the euro is performing well this morning thanks to the rise in Eurozone and German investor sentiment. The ZEW survey rose to 30.6 from 27.6, and while investors grew less optimistic about current conditions in Germany, their confidence in future conditions improved.

With the European Central Bank (ECB) taking additional steps to stimulate the economy, investors are looking for a stronger recovery.

The strength in the euro contrasts with the weakness seen in the British pound and Aussie. UK consumer prices increased more than expected, but the GBP was driven lower by EURGBP buying.

The AUD is today’s worst performer so far, down almost 1% against the USD after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes reminded everyone that the central bank is looking to ease again, and their views have not changed because the currency weakened. In fact, the exchange rate could depreciate further over time considering the terms of trade declined, which is not favorable for Australia's economy.

By Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES