News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Please join @PaulRobinsonFX at 6:00 EST/10:00 GMT for a webinar on how you can become a better trader in current markets. Register here: https://t.co/XO3SOn8u43 https://t.co/1AO0tXYz7L
  • Heads Up:🇬🇷 Unemployment Rate (JAN) due at 09:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 15.8% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-15
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here: https://t.co/7t4BzmLg8w https://t.co/q7YCOo8DM1
  • US Dollar Looks to Retail Sales, Jobless Claims Data for a Lifeline - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/euro_open/2021/04/15/US-Dollar-Looks-to-Retail-Sales-Jobless-Claims-Data-for-a-Lifeline.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Spivak&utm_campaign=twr #dollar #retailsales #joblessclaims https://t.co/vJVKJ5P92g
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 BoE Credit Conditions Survey due at 08:30 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-15
  • 🇪🇸 Balance of Trade (FEB) Actual: €-1.082B Previous: €-1.769B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-15
  • 🇮🇹 Inflation Rate YoY Final (MAR) Actual: 0.8% Expected: 0.8% Previous: 0.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-15
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.93%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 75.22%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/F80m5ro5O1
  • Heads Up:🇪🇸 Balance of Trade (FEB) due at 08:00 GMT (15min) Previous: €-1.769B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-15
  • Heads Up:🇮🇹 Inflation Rate YoY Final (MAR) due at 08:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 0.8% Previous: 0.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-15
New US Data Has Fed’s Hands Tied

New US Data Has Fed’s Hands Tied

Kathy Lien, Technical Strategist

Risk currencies have shown surprising resilience following Monday’s sharp selloff, but given mixed US data, the Federal Reserve will likely need more time before tapering asset purchases.

The US dollar (USD) traded slightly higher after this morning's US economic reports, but the data provides the Federal Reserve with little reason to taper asset purchases in the near future.

Inflation remains non-existent while housing market indicators were mixed. Consumer prices dropped 0.2% in the month of March, which was the fourth time in five months that CPI either stagnated or declined. Core price growth also slowed to 0.1% from 0.2%.

We are beginning to see unevenness in the US recovery, and given recent disappointments, the Fed needs to be careful about reducing stimulus prematurely. One month worth of weaker data doesn't make a trend, but if these signs of slower growth persist, the central bank won't be able to make any changes in monetary policy until the fourth quarter.

New York Fed President and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voter William C. Dudley, who spoke this morning, agrees. Dudley said he "favors continuing QE after the March job market slowdown" and cautioned against declaring victory "prematurely."

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, who is also an FOMC voter, said the US can't be complacent about the economic outlook. He expects the fiscal drag to wipe out between 1% and 1.25% from GDP.

See also: 3 Economic Red Flags…and One False Alarm

More US Data and Policymakers in Focus

Aside from consumer prices, housing starts and building permits were also released this morning. Starts were strong, rising 7% in the month of March after a significant upward revision the previous month.

February starts were revised from 0.8% to 7.3%. Unfortunately, building permits dropped 3.9% that same month, with the past month's report revised down to 3.9% from 4.6%.

While the large increase in starts in February and March overshadow the drop in permits, it won't be enough to ease the Fed's concerns about the pace of the recovery. Industrial production increased 0.4% last month, but manufacturing production dropped 0.1%.

Fed Governor Elizabeth Duke is scheduled to speak later today as well, and as voting members of the FOMC, it will be important to see if both Duke and Evans share Dudley's concerns.

A Sudden Return to Risk-on

Meanwhile, all major currency pairs were trading higher as risk appetite recovers from yesterday's sharp selling. In particular, the dollar weakened against all counterparts except for the Japanese yen (JPY). On Monday, USDJPY traded as low as 95.81, and it is now hovering near 98.

For the most part, it has been a morning of recovery for risk appetite as traders ignored disappointing Eurozone data, slower UK CPI growth, and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) concerns about Australian dollar (AUD) strength.

Corporate earnings season also continues, so keep an eye on the movements in stocks and comments from other Fed officials. European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi will be speaking today as well.

By Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES