News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Indices Update: As of 08:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.78% Wall Street: 0.51% France 40: 0.01% Germany 30: -0.11% FTSE 100: -0.30% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/iShSJAHcN2
  • Euro Price Forecast: EUR/USD Perched Atop 200-MA with ECB In Focus - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/euro_open/2021/03/09/Euro-Price-Forecast-EURUSD-Perched-Atop-200-MA-with-ECB-In-Focus.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Moss&utm_campaign=twr $EUR $EURUSD https://t.co/louQGcvBI5
  • Traders focus a lot of their energy on spotting the perfect time to enter a trade. While this is important, it is ultimately where traders choose to exit trades that will determine success. Learn about the three types of trading exit strategies here: https://t.co/muYkTNXH7s https://t.co/17PKF2fWMh
  • 🇩🇪 Balance of Trade s.a (JAN) Actual: €22.2B Expected: €16.4B Previous: €16.4B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-09
  • 🇩🇪 Balance of Trade (JAN) Actual: €14.3B Previous: €15.2B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-09
  • 🇩🇪 Balance of Trade (JAN) Actual: €14.3B Previous: €14.8B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-09
  • 🇩🇪 Balance of Trade s.a (JAN) Actual: €22.2B Expected: €16.4B Previous: €16.1B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-09
  • Brush up your knowledge on #tradewars with this tool from DailyFX research briefly outlining trade-war history dating back to the early 1900s here: https://t.co/ZWaL6laTU5 https://t.co/1gdOjST2dn
  • Heads Up:🇩🇪 Balance of Trade s.a (JAN) due at 07:00 GMT (15min) Expected: €16.4B Previous: €16.1B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-09
  • Heads Up:🇩🇪 Balance of Trade (JAN) due at 07:00 GMT (15min) Previous: €14.8B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-09
Prosperity and Crisis Talks Transpire on Same Day

Prosperity and Crisis Talks Transpire on Same Day

Kathy Lien, Technical Strategist

New US economic data and central bank policies in the US and Japan are in focus today as the Cyprus bailout and unknown fallout from it fades slightly. Meanwhile, rumors begin about another Eurozone debt crisis in the making.

With the lack of freshly negative headlines out of Cyprus and mixed US economic reports, currencies are trading cautiously today. The economic calendar was heavy with US data and there were both surprises and disappointments.

For the Federal Reserve, the lack of consistent improvements in the economy is one of the main reasons why weaning off quantitative easing (QE) is a long-term discussion. Thinking about an exit is the right thing for the Fed to do, but the central bank is still miles away from acting on it.

Of all the economic reports released today, consumer confidence is the most important, and unfortunately, the Conference Board's index dropped from 68 to 59.7 in the month of March. This decline was consistent with the deterioration reported by the University of Michigan and Investors Business Daily, both of which cited concerns about labor market conditions and the sequester. Weaker confidence could weigh on consumer spending at the end of the first quarter.

New home sales also dropped 4.6% in February, but this decline represents a correction after the sharp 13.1% rise in January. The beginning of the year was a good one for the labor market, with housing prices rising 1.02%, according to S&P/Case-Shiller housing price index. This was the strongest increase since June 2006.

Durable goods orders also jumped 5.7% in the month of February. This increase was more than anticipated and was driven largely by a 95.3% rise in commercial aircraft orders. Demand for autos also rose 3.8%, but excluding transportation orders, durable goods fell 0.5%. Durable goods can be extremely volatile, and therefore, we caution traders against reading too much into these numbers because the changes this month mostly reflect a payback from last month.

Rumors Swirl About Yet Another Eurozone Bailout

Meanwhile, the euro hasn't budged because the deal between the Eurogroup and Cyprus has not resolved all of the unknowns. Depositors with accounts over EUR 100,000 still don't know exactly how much they will lose, all banks are closed until Thursday, and capital controls could remain in place for weeks and possibly even months.

There's also been talk that Slovenia, whose yields spiked up to 5.4%, could be the next Cyprus, but with a debt-to-GDP ratio of only 52.7% and bank deposits accounting for only 125% of GDP (versus 800% in Cyprus), we agree with the European Central Bank (ECB) that the contagion risk for Slovenia is minimal. Nonetheless, we need some good news for the EURUSD to rally as traders wait for banks in Cyprus to reopen on Thursday.

See related: All-New Headlines Dragging Down the Euro

Bank of Japan’s Kuroda Makes a Surprising Splash

Overnight, USDJPY received a boost from new Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. During his Parliamentary testimony, Kuroda sounded optimistic about the economy and committed to easier monetary policy. He said the economy has stopped weakening and showed positive signs of improvement.

The weaker yen helped to boost corporate and household sentiment, but uncertainties are high for Japan's economy, and therefore, the BoJ will need to do whatever it takes to end deflation. More specifically, the central bank plans to discuss different ways to lower the yield curve, including extending bond maturities in their asset fund along with increasing purchases of long-term bonds. He expects to achieve the 2% inflation goal in two years, but admitted that they may not be able to accomplish this goal through monetary policy alone.

See related: 3 Reasons for Near-Term USD/JPY Losses

By Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES