News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • MACD who? The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a technical indicator which simply measures the relationship of exponential moving averages (EMA). Find out how you can incorporate MACD into your trading strategy here: https://t.co/ZNs4QhQGQ6 https://t.co/KrMcyZZqO7
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate decision may spark a bullish reaction in $AUDUSD as the central bank is expected to retain the current course for monetary policy. Get your market update from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/WbcR9ER0qT https://t.co/TynsqCtPQ6
  • Gold has broken below a critical support confluence we’ve been tracking for months now and the risk remains for further losses while below this threshold in the weeks ahead. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @MBForex here:https://t.co/xgN2obaIWR https://t.co/H71ufPNkPg
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/Evr5KgUjVo
  • $GBPUSD corrects from stretched valuations, however, positioning clear is likely to entice dip-buyers. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/sfFdBx9pN6 https://t.co/j6nnry65SW
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out https://t.co/c51s3IBcEu https://t.co/oQrOpYINOj
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/LSVPlus0vv
  • There’s a strong correlation between interest rates and forex trading. Forex is ruled by many variables, but the interest rate of the currency is the fundamental factor that prevails above them all. Learn how interest rates impact currency markets here: https://t.co/J0EPMD2Cfi https://t.co/rPd6B5KzuI
  • Time-cycle analysis suggests that the Japanese Yen could slide significantly lower against its major counterparts. Key levels for AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/WPq4Z9zzEw https://t.co/VzVLrBbL9q
  • The Australian Dollar looks poised to outperform the haven-associated US Dollar and Japanese Yen. However, it may lose ground to the New Zealand Dollar. Key levels for AUD/USD, AUD/JPY and AUD/NZD. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/cuxRxl5WaF https://t.co/pujrmqSxV7
The “Euro Crisis” That’s No Crisis at All

The “Euro Crisis” That’s No Crisis at All

Yohay Elam, Technical Strategist

Italian parliamentary elections have resulted in widespread market uncertainty and a sense that the country is destined for another round of elections. However, a surprising case exists for why Italy’s political situation may not be as bad for the euro as it seems.

Italy is rather infamous for not having stable governments. Case in point: the country has had more than 60 governments since the end of World War II. Nevertheless, Italy is one of the richest countries in the world, and there is a (somewhat surprising) case to be made that the current political instability in the Eurozone’s third-largest economy is not as bad as it seems.

The results of the February elections could lead, in theory, to an alliance between center-left Pier Luigi Bersani and center-right Silvio Berlusconi, but this now seems highly unlikely. Also, a coalition government between alternative candidate Beppe Grillo and Bersani seems quite remote. As a result, new elections are the likely end result…but not so fast.

When examining the political roadmap, there are a few more reasons to be calm. The President of the Italian Republic, Giorgio Napolitano, holds the power to dissolve parliament and call new elections. However, he is forbidden to do that in the last six months of his term unless this period coincides with the last six months of parliament.

Napolitano, age 87, will end his term on May 15, and he has clearly stated that he will not seek to continue his term. So, a new President must be elected by parliament before this happens. Assuming political parties will reach a consensus on the ceremonial role of the President, whoever does win election might try to bring political parties together to form a government.

Even if the new President dissolves parliament immediately, elections are not expected by June and could be postponed until after summer, when many Italians go on holiday.

What happens in the meantime? Well, current Prime Minister Mario Monti stays in power, albeit with his limited powers. But his political reforms won’t necessarily stop right here, either.

European Central Bank (ECB) President and fellow Italian Mario Draghi was asked about the course of Italian reforms in a recent press conference, and Draghi said that Italian reforms are now on autopilot, regardless of election results. Draghi did not seem worried whatsoever.

In addition, markets have recovered. Italian stocks have erased their losses, and bond yields have once again fallen in the secondary markets. Fresh evidence of improvement was also seen in a bond auction held by Spain, where the yields for ten-year bonds (in the primary market) fell below 5% for the first time since November 2010.

It’s possible that the political stalemate in Italy is not as euro-negative as most believe…at least not yet, anyway. Regardless, there are still many more factors, both fundamental and technical, moving the euro in the current market environment. (See the latest euro coverage on Forex Crunch.)

By Yohay Elam of Forex Crunch

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES