News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • $EURUSD trying to hold support in the fibonacci zone b/w 1709 and 1736, same that helped to catch the Q1 low one more level below that zone and its the 2021 low at 1664 $USD $DXY https://t.co/sntjlxZrnl
  • EUR/USD has been packed in tightly between two key kevels (1.1700/38) since the open on Sunday night. Get your $EURUSD market update from @HathornSabin here:https://t.co/y8SKCtGUFj https://t.co/7atjCSqVS0
  • 🇺🇸 Building Permits MoM (AUG) Actual: 6% Previous: 2.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-21
  • 🇺🇸 Housing Starts MoM (AUG) Actual: 3.9% Previous: -7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-21
  • 🇨🇦 New Housing Price Index YoY (AUG) Actual: 12.2% Previous: 11.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-21
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here: https://t.co/rz7fqi8ZEe https://t.co/EZHni1zt9V
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Building Permits MoM (AUG) due at 12:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 2.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-21
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Housing Starts MoM (AUG) due at 12:30 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-21
  • Heads Up:🇨🇦 New Housing Price Index YoY (AUG) due at 12:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 11.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-21
  • strong bounce in $SPX overnight was up as much as 100 handles off of the lows at one point, futes pointing to a strong gap on the open $SPY $ES https://t.co/ZT5z74jWeS
Guest Commentary: Outlook on SNB Monetary Policy Assessment Statement

Guest Commentary: Outlook on SNB Monetary Policy Assessment Statement

George Dorgan, financial analyst and macro-based portfolio manager, snbchf.com,

On December 13th, 2012, at 09.30 CET, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) holds its quarterly monetary policy assessment meeting. As we explained in the “drivers of Swiss inflation” post, inflation pressures will remain subdued for the next 2-3 years, because the effects of the quick rise of the franc and weakening global growth need to be washed out. With the recent Bundesbank expectations that growth in Germany will slow in 2013 and the expected weaker inflation in the eurozone, the SNB might even downgrade its inflation expectations for 2014, from values close to 1% down to 0.2%. These new estimations have already been announced by the Swiss statistics bureau.

Guest_Commentary_Outlook_on_SNB_Monetary_Policy_Assessment_Statement_body_1212.jpg, Guest Commentary: Outlook on SNB Monetary Policy Assessment Statement

Given that there are many upwards drivers of inflation, like immigration, huge money supply and rising housing prices, we think the central bank will not hike the floor. On the contrary, the SNB recently emphasized more and more the risks in their balance sheet: their main assets like German government bonds do not yield enough to cover potential FX losses. Recently, Credit Suisse and UBS announced negative interest rates for clearing clients that have high balances in francs. As has happened regularly before SNB meetings, FX traders go long EUR/CHF in the hope of a SNB move. The NZZ took these two pieces of news as the basis for speculating about a floor hike.

Most analysts expect stronger growth in Switzerland than in the euro zone in the coming years.

Guest_Commentary_Outlook_on_SNB_Monetary_Policy_Assessment_Statement_body_1212-21.jpg, Guest Commentary: Outlook on SNB Monetary Policy Assessment Statement

The Swiss economy has stabilized thanks to the introduction of the floor that helped to weaken the franc. Data from UBS and other sources suggest that thanks to deflation and cheaper production prices, in purchasing power terms and for the real effective exchange rate, the franc is not overvalued any more.

By George Dorgan, financial analyst and macro-based portfolio manager, http://snbchf.com

Would you like to see more third-party contributors on DailyFX? For questions and comments, please send them to research@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES