News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The London trading session accounts for around 35% of total average forex turnover*, the largest amount relative to its peers. The London forex session overlaps with the New York session. Learn about trading the London forex session here: https://t.co/dWaWQ0MK1V https://t.co/47i1c87veZ
  • 🇮🇹 Balance of Trade (NOV) Actual: €6.766B Previous: €7.565B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-19
  • IEA lowers forecast for global oil demand by 600kbpd for Q1 21 and 300kbpd for whole of 21
  • Another strong move in the Ether (ETH)/Bitcoin (BTC) spread...#eth #btc #cryptocurrency @DailyFX Prices via @IGcom https://t.co/NvgjDnyWBP
  • Germany to extend lockdown measures until Feb 15th - RTRS
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 100.00%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 64.12%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/WQr6IZKXO7
  • Heads Up:🇮🇹 Balance of Trade (NOV) due at 09:00 GMT (15min) Previous: €7.565B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-19
  • 🇭🇰 Unemployment Rate (DEC) Actual: 6.6% Previous: 6.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-19
  • Commodities Update: As of 08:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 1.26% Oil - US Crude: 0.72% Gold: 0.34% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/3hAadkah8F
  • The US Dollar may be finding a turning point against ASEAN currencies as smaller fiscal stimulus bets, soft earnings risk and Covid cases translate into some capital flight from equities. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/F3uz5GHMSd https://t.co/2hBpM2GfQz
Guest Commentary: US recession already in play? One lone voice continues insisting

Guest Commentary: US recession already in play? One lone voice continues insisting

Yohay Elam, ForexCrunch,

Recent US indicators continue showing the same picture: the US economy continues to grow slowly – not an impressive recovery, but still growing. The housing sector seems to lead while manufacturing lags.

However, one highly regarded research institute, ECRI, has called a recession in 2012, and said that we will know this only with some distance. They now say the recession has begun in July 2012, and that the deadline for seeing this is the end of 2012. Are they going to be proven right or wrong?

ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan is the lone voice talking about a recession, and has been grilled on his called by many analysts, several times. The US economy actually grew by an annualized rate of 2.7% (according to the second release) in Q3. Job growth during these months and since then was quite healthy, especially if we look at the positive revisions made since the initial releases.

For the time being, ECRI explains its call by using its coincident indicators, and by looking at job activity at previous recessions:

  • Actually, this was also true in three of the last seven recessions – and in the severe ’73-’75 recession, job growth stayed positive eight months into the recession. Thus, positive jobs growth isn’t inconsistent with the early months of recession. Of course, all of this data is subject to revision, but, as we’ve noted before, the ultimate revisions to coincident indicator data after business cycle peaks tend to be downward.

The end of the year marks the deadline for the “fiscal cliff”, but also for this call. It will be interesting to see if NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research), will indeed declare one, and date it back to around July 2012.

Further reading: All you need to know about the fiscal cliff

By Yohay Elam, ForexCrunch

Would you like to see more third-party contributors on DailyFX? For questions and comments, please send them to research@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES