Guest Commentary: Gold and Silver Outlook for November 19-23
The prices of gold and silver changed direction again last week and edged down. Moreover, the high volatility of precious metals from the beginning of the month has eased down during last week. Will this low volatility continue during this short week? This week the U.S will celebrate Thanksgiving; this could lower the trading volume in all major markets and thus may raise the volatility by the end of the week. Last week, the minutes of the recent FOMC meeting didn't reveal any information regarding the Fed's next step. Further, Bernanke's speech also didn't seem to affect the bullion market. The Euro group is likely to decide on the Greek bailout this week. During last week, several other reports were published that may have slightly affected the forex and precious metals: the U.S jobless claims sharply increased by 78k to reach 439k; the Philly Fed index declined to -10.7, plausibly due to the adverse effect Hurricane Sandy on the region.
The video report herein presents an outlook of gold and silver that include the main publications and events that may affect precious metals during November 19th and November 23rd. Some of these reports include:
Euro-group Meeting: The Euro-group Meeting will convene in Brussels as the EU leaders will decide on the Greek bailout plan. Following last week's meeting, the EU ministers of finance had decided to make the decision regarding Greece's next bailout package; if the EU will decide to make this bailout, which many expect will take place, then this may pull up a bit the Euro;
Bernanke's Speech: In anticipation for the government tackling the fiscal cliff by the end of the year, many will look towards Bernanke's speech that could offer some insight behind the Fed's future monetary steps. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve will talk at the Economic Club of New York. The title of the speech is "The Economic Recovery and Economic Policy ";
In conclusion, I guess gold and silver will moderately rise during the week. There might be a rise in the volatility on account of the low trading volume due to the upcoming U.S Holiday. Moreover, it's worth mentioning that in the past three years the prices of gold and silver rose during Thanksgiving week and then plunged on Black Friday. If this pattern will continue (obviously this pattern might not be significant), it could suggest precious metals will rise during the week only to fall on Friday. The upcoming Euro-group Summit could affect the Euro if the EU ministers of finance will decide to approve the next bailout for Greece. Last week's Euro-group Summit may have only slightly affected the Euro. The upcoming publication of China's manufacturing PMI could affect major commodities. If the PMI will pass the 50 point mark it could positively affect commodities prices. If BOJ will expand its monetary policy it could affect the yen and major currencies pair that could also affect commodities.
For further reading: Why Gold isn’t pulling Up?
By: Lior Cohen, M.A. in Economics, Commodities Analyst and Blogger at Trading NRG
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