Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 11.09.2012
The prices of gold and silver changed direction again and bounced back on Thursday along with other commodities prices including crude oil and natural gas. Yesterday, U.S jobless claims update came out: number of jobless claims declined by 8k to reach 363k. This news may have contributed to the strengthening of the USD. The American trade balance deficit declined – exports of goods rose by a larger rate than imports had during September. This news was also a positive signs for the progress of the U.S economy and may have helped pull up commodities prices. In Europe MPC and ECB kept their respective short term rate unchanged. On today's agenda: UoM Consumer Sentiment, China Industrial Production, and China's Trade Balance.
On Today's Agenda
China Industrial Production: in the previous report about September the index rose to 9.2%; if the index will continue to rise, it could indicate the Chinese economic activity is expanding;
UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will publish its preliminary consumer sentiment report; this survey could offer another insight to recent developments in U.S consumers' sentiment regarding the economy; last time the sentiment index rose again to 83.1;
Currencies / Bullion Market – November Update
The Euro/ USD declined again on Thursday by 0.17% to 1.2749. As seen in the chart below, linear correlation between gold and Euro/USD is still mid-strong and robust: during October/November, the linear correlation between gold and Euro /USD reached 0.54 (daily percent changes); the linear correlation between the silver and AUD/USD was 0.48 (daily percent changes). Thus, if the Euro and other risk currencies will continue to fall against the USD, they are likely to curb the rally of gold and silver.
Daily Outlook for November 9th
The prices of bullion changed direction again and bounced back on Thursday. The volatility of the precious metals prices seem to have settled after the sharp shifts during the beginning of the week. IN Europe there weren't any big changes as the ECB and MPC left their respective rate flat. The recent rally of the USD may have curbed the rally of bullion rates. The upcoming U.S financial report to be published today including UoM Consumer Sentiment could affect the direction of the USD, which could determine the path of gold and silver. Finally, the upcoming Chinese reports could also affect commodities prices. If the upcoming reports will show signs of progress, this could also pull up the prices of commodities.
For further reading: Does the Rise of Gold Help the Profitability of Gold Companies?
By: Lior Cohen, M.A. in Economics, Commodities Analyst and Blogger at Trading NRG
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