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Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 11.07.2012

Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 11.07.2012

Lior Cohen: Commodities Analyst at Trading NRG,

The prices of gold and silver hiked on Tuesday and thus completed a two day rally. The U.S Presidential elections are over as the incumbent President Obama was elected to serve another term in the White House. In the 2007 elections the prices of gold and silver hiked during the week of the elections. Thus, the recent rise in the prices of gold and silver coincides with the bullion market reaction four years ago. The recent rally, however, might change direction, as was the case four years ago, in the days to follow. In other financial news, RBA left its short term interest rate unchanged at 3.25%. Currently, the prices of gold and silver are rising. Besides the results of the Presidential elections, on today's agenda: Swiss National Bank Foreign Currency Reserve, Euro Area Retail Sales, German Industrial Production, Japan Current Account and Australia Employment Report.

On Tuesday, Gold hiked by 1.89% to $1,715; Silver also rose by 2.89% to $32.03. During the month, gold declined by 0.24%; silver, by 0.89%.

On Today's Agenda

U.S 10 Year Bond Auction: the U.S government will issue another bond auction; in the recent bond auction, which was held at the second week of October, the average rate reached 1.7%; if the rate will continue to fall, it could suggest that more traders become more bearish;

Euro Area Retail Sales: This report will show the recent development in EU retail sales for October. In September, retail sales edged up by 0.1%; if this report will not show growth it might weaken the Euro;

German Industrial Production: in the previous report the German industrial production declined by 0.5% (M-O-M) during August;

Daily Outlook

The prices of bullion rose again on Tuesday. The U.S Presidential elections seem to have a short term substantial effect on the prices of gold and silver. The election of President Obama for a second term, seems to raise the concerns over the potential devalue of the USD and thus pulled up the prices of gold and silver. This market reaction was also the case in 2007. In any case, this recent rally might be short lived and soon after there could be a sharp pull back. The upcoming financial reports to be published today including German Industrial production and EU retail sales could affect the strength of the Euro. The upcoming U.S bond auction could signal the changes in the market sentiment. Finally, if the Euro and other "risk currencies" will continue to rally against the USD, then they are likely to positively affect precious metals.

For further reading: Gold and Silver Outlook for November

By: Lior Cohen, M.A. in Economics, Commodities Analyst and Blogger at Trading NRG

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