Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Weekly Outlook 10.15.2012
During last week, gold and silver slightly declined. A couple of U.S reports may have moderately affected forex and commodities prices: the U.S PPI rose by 1.1% during September; U.S jobless claims fell by 30k to 339k. These news items may have contributed to movement of the USD against other major currencies, and consequently bullion rates. In Europe, the speculations around the future move of Greece and Spain and their debt crisis might reach new high this week as the EU Summit will be held. If the EU Summit will result in some big headlines, such as Spain making the formal request to ECB to start its bond purchase program, this could help rally the Euro. Nonetheless, during last week the Euro/USD fell by 0.68%; on the other hand, AUD/USD rose by 0.47%.
The video report herein has an outlook of gold and silver for the main publications and events that may affect precious metals during October 15th to 19th. Some of these reports include:
Wednesday – U.S. Housing Starts: this report was historically correlated withgold– as housing starts rise, goldtended to decline the next day (even when controlling to the USD effect); in the previous report, the adjusted annual rate reached 733,000 in August 2012, which was 2.3% above July’s rate;
Wednesday – China Third Quarter GDP 2012: during the second quarter of 2012, China expanded by only 7.6% in annual terms; the current expectations are that the Q3 2012 grew in annul terms may even further fall; if the growth rate will be lower than in the previous quarter it might adversely affect commodities prices;
Thursday – EU Economic Summit: there will be a two day EU economic Summit, in which the European leaders will talk about the recent financial developments related to the EU debt crisis. In the Summit the members may talk about Spain's debt crisis. Perhaps Spain will make its official request for aid in this Summit. If there will be big headlines from this Summit it may have some effect on the financial markets;
Thursday – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: In the recent September survey, the growth rate rose from -7.1 in August to -1.9 in September. If the index will remain negative it may adversely affect not only USD but also commodities;
In conclusion, I guess gold and silver will change direction and resume their rally during the upcoming week. They may resume their rally but won't rise by a high margin. The upcoming reports regarding the U.S economy include the U.S Philly Fed, CPI, and housing starts could pull up precious metals rates if these reports will show the U.S economy isn't expanding. This, in turn, could raise the chances of Fed introducing additional monetary in the near future. The upcoming EU Summit might end the speculations around the future move of Spain and deal with the next bailout for Greece. If the Summit will deal with these issues and resolve them it could help rally the Euro and consequently bring the prices of gold and silver back up. On the other hand, if China's GDP report won't show higher growth rate than in previous quarters, this could adversely affect commodities. Finally, if the Euro, Aussie dollar, Canadian dollar and other exchange rates will resumed their rally against the USD, this could also positively affect precious metals.
For further reading: Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for October 15-19
By: Lior Cohen, M.A. in Economics, Commodities Analyst and Blogger at Trading NRG
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