Guest Commentary: Gold and Silver Outlook October 8-12
During last week, gold and silver remained nearly unchanged. The Aussie dollar declined against the USD mainly due to RBA's decision to lower the cash rate by 25pp. This development may have contributed to the unclear trend of precious metals. There were several reports that were published last week: the U.S manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5; 114k jobs were added in September according to the recent non-farm payroll report. This mixed signal regarding the progress of the U.S economy may have also contributed to the unclear trend in major commodities markets. In Europe, regarding Greece and Spain may have curbed the recent rally of the Euro. Nonetheless, during the week the Euro/USD rose by 1.41%; on the other hand, the Aussie dollar fell by 1.87%.
The video report has an outlook of gold and silver for the main publications and events that may affect precious metals during October 8th to 12th. Some of these reports include:
Tuesday – European Council Meeting: In the European Council Meeting the EU ministers of finance will meet and talk about the recent monetary developments in Europe;
Thursday –American Trade Balance: This monthly report for August will show the recent changes in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, including commodities; according to the recent American trade balance report regarding July the goods and services deficit edged up during the month to $42 billion;
Thursday –U.S. Federal Budget Balance: this report indicates the government debt growth and thus may affect the USD. In the recent report regarding August the deficit rose by $190 billion to a deficit of $1,164 billion for the fiscal year of 2012; this is a decrease of 5% compared to 2011;
Friday – U.S. Producer Price Index: In the recent report regarding August this index for finished goods hiked by 1.7% compared with July's rate and rose by 0.5% in the last 12 months; this news might affect commodities;
In conclusion, I guess gold and silver will not move much during the upcoming week much like last week. They may resume their rally but won't rise by a high margin. There are several big meetings next week: Summits of the G7, Euro Council and more that could affect the forex and commodities markets, but unless there will be actual decisions regarding the Euro debt crisis or the "fiscal cliff" in the U.S, I suspect these events won't have a substantial effect on the financial markets. The upcoming reports regarding the U.S economy include the U.S trade balance and PPI could pull up precious metals rates if these reports will show the U.S economy isn't progressing. This, in turn, could raise the chances of Fed introducing additional monetary in the near future. The uncertainty around Europe could curb the recent recovery of the Euro. If ECB President will come up with big headlines, it could positively affect the Euro. Until Spain will make the formal request to start the ECB bond purchase program, this is likely to curbing the progress of the Euro, which means other "risk currencies" and commodities prices are likely to follow. If China will introduce additional measures to jump-start its economy, this could also help rally commodities rates.
For further reading:Gold and Silver Monthly Outlook for October
By: Lior Cohen, M.A. in Economics, Commodities Analyst and Blogger at Trading NRG
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