Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Weekly Outlook 10.01.2012
During last week, gold and silver slightly declined as the recent developments in Greece, Spain and Italy that included riots against austerity measures may have pulled down not only bullion rates but also the Euro. By the end of the week, the release of Spain's budget for 2013, which introduced, according to the Spanish government, austerity measures that are with accordance to the EU guidelines, may have contributed to the rally of the Euro and precious metals rates. The FOMC decision to launch QE3 is likely to resurface this week as Bernanke is set speak on the Fed's monetary policy; the minutes of the recent FOMC meeting will be published. These two items could affect gold and silver rates during the week. Here is a short outlook for October 1st to 5th.
The video report has an outlook of gold and silver for the main publications and events that may affect precious metals during October 1st to 5th. Some of these reports include:
Monday – Bernanke's Speech: Following the recent decision of the FOMC the Chairman of the Federal Reserve will talk about the Fed's policy. The speech's title is: ""Five Questions about the Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy";
Thursday – Minutes of September's FOMC Meeting: Following the recent FOMC meeting, in which it was decided to launch QE3, and to extend the Fed's pledge of keeping the short term rates low until mid-2015, the bullion market reacted to this news – gold and silver prices hiked on the day of the announcement. The minutes of the recent FOMC meeting might add some additional perceptive and insight behind this decision and the future steps of the FOMC especially in anticipation of the upcoming FOMC meeting at the end of October;
Friday – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report: in the payroll report for August 2012, the labor market expanded by a lower than expected rate: the number of non-farm payroll employment rose by 96k; the U.S unemployment rate slipped to 8.1%; if the upcoming report will continue to show little growth of below 120 thousand (in additional jobs), this may raise the chances of the Fed introducing additional stimulus plan in the near future;
In conclusion, I guess gold and silver could resume their upward trend especially if the minutes of the FOMC meeting and Bernanke's speech will contribute to the speculations that the Fed could consider additional monetary steps in the near future and if the U.S economy will continue to show little progress. In this regards, the upcoming reports regarding the U.S economy include the U.S non-farm payroll report and manufacturing PMI; they could pull up precious metals rates if these reports will show little growth. This, in turn, could raise the chances of Fed loosening up its monetary policy by raising the target inflation or intervening in the forex market or pegging the long term yields to a low rate or other. On the other hand the uncertainty around Europe could curb the bullion rates' rally: If the ECB will lower its rate again this could pull down the Euro. The progress in Europe including the budget issues in Spain and Greece are likely to keep the volatility high of the Euro. Until Spain will make the formal request to start the ECB bond purchase program, this is likely to keep pulling down the Euro, which means other "risk currencies" and commodities prices are likely to follow.
For further reading: Gold and Silver Monthly Outlook for October
By: Lior Cohen, M.A. in Economics, Commodities Analyst and Blogger at Trading NRG
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