Guest Commentary: Gold and Silver Outlook September 17-21
During last week, gold and silver increased, mainly on Thursday following the publication of the FOMC decision to commence with QE3 that will include the Fed buying mortgage backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month. There were several other reports that were published during last week, such as U.S Consumer Price Index that showed a rise of 0.6% in August and U.S PPI that also hiked by 1.7%.
The video report on gold and silver has an outlook for the main publications and events that may affect precious metals during September 17th to 21st. Some of these news items include:
Wednesday: U.S. Housing Starts & Building Permits: housing starts was historically correlated with gold price – as housing starts decreased, gold prices tended to rise the next day (even when controlling to the U.S dollar effect); in the previous report, the adjusted annual rate reached 754,000 in July 2012, which was 1.1% below June's rate; on the other hand building permits rose by 6.8% (M-o-M) in the adjusted annual rate of building permits and reached 812,000 in July.
Thursday: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey: In the previous August survey, the growth rate rose from -12.9 in July to -7.1 in August. If the index will remain negative it may adversely affect not only U.S Dollar but also American stock indexes, and commodities;
Thursday: ECB President Speech: Mario Draghi is likely to refer to the recent German Court ruling, and he may also refer to the future monetary steps the ECB will take in order to jump start the EU economy and lower the borrowing costs of the struggling EU economies such as Spain and Italy. This speech might affect the Euro to US dollar exchange rate;
In conclusion, I guess gold and silver will continue to rise on a weekly scale but at an even slower pace then they did during recent weeks. The hike in bullion rate on Thursday, mainly due to announcement of the FOMC to launch QE3 is likely to have some lingering effects on the prices of bullion. Further, the positive news from Europe regarding the German Courts to approve the bailout helped the recovery of the Euro and consequently also rallied commodities. The upcoming ECB President speech could also affect the Euro. The upcoming interest rate decisions by Japanese Bank could affect the forex markets if the bank will change the rate or expand its monetary easing plan. The main U.S reports of the week will be the U.S Philly Fed survey, housing starts, existing home sales and jobless claims. If these reports will show growth, this could rally the commodities and stocks markets. The Chinese manufacturing survey could adversely affect commodities rates if the index will further fall.
By Lior Cohen By: Lior Cohen, M.A. in Economics, Commodities Analyst and Blogger at Trading NRG
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