Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 09.06.2012
The prices gold and silver didn't do much yesterday as they both edged down after had hiked in the previous days. Major foreign exchange rates shifted with an unclear trend as the Euro appreciated against the USD while other "risk currencies" such as AUD and CAD declined against the USD. There are many news items of today's agenda including: Bank of England Rate decision & Asset Purchase Plan, ECB Press Conference and Euro Rate Decision, U.S. Jobless Claims, U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and Australian Trade Balance.
In the chart below are the shifts of normalized prices of precious metals in the last couple of weeks (normalized to 100 as of August 16th). During the last couple of weeks gold and silver had a steady rally.
On Today's Agenda
ECB Euro Rate Decision: In August the rate remained flat. Since many EU countries are still struggling, ECB might decide to make another rate cut in the near future by another 0.25pp. If ECB will cut the rate again, it may affect the Euro to US dollar exchange rate;
U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: in the latest report the jobless claims remained unchanged at 374,000; this upcoming weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently the prices of commodities;
Great Britain Rate & Asset Purchase Plan: Bank of England will announce its basic rate for September 2012 and of any changes in its asset purchase plan; as of August the BOE's rate remained flat at 0.5% and the asset purchase plan also remained £375 billion;
Currencies / Bullion Market – September Update
The Euro/ USD edged up on Wednesday by 0.28% to 1.2601. On the other hand, other currencies such as AUD and CAD depreciated on Wednesday against the USD. The linear correlation between gold and Euro is still strong: during August-September, the correlation between the gold and EURO/USD was 0.50 (daily percent changes). Therefore, if the Euro will continue to rally against the USD, it could also help the recovery of precious metals.
There are many items on today's agenda that could affect not only the forex markets but also major commodities markets. The rate decisions of Bank of England and European Central Bank could affect the British pound and Euro, respectively. There are expectations that ECB will cut the rate by 25pp to 0.5%. In such a case it could lower the Euro and consequently adversely affect the prices of gold and silver rates. The speculations around the future steps of ECB's bond purchase program that will help struggling EU countries could also help rally the Euro and bullion rates. Today's U.S publications including ISM non-manufacturing PMI and jobless claims might have a modest effect on the USD.
For further reading: Gold and Silver Outlook for September
By: Lior Cohen, M.A. in Economics, Commodities Analyst and Blogger at Trading NRG
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