Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 09.05.2012
The prices of gold and silver continued their rally and rose for the second consecutive business day. There were several news items that were released yesterday regarding Australia: RBA kept the interest rate unchanged at 3.5%; the Australian GDP for Q2 expanded by 0.6% (seasonally adjusted) which is a lower rate than in the first quarter (back then it was 1.3%). The U.S manufacturing PMI edged down 49.6%, which means the manufacturing sector is still contracting. On today's agenda: German 10 Year Bond Auction, Bank of Canada's Overnight Rate, and Australia Employment Report.
The ratio between the two precious metals declined again on Tuesday to 52.33. During August-September the ratio declined by 9.5% as silver out-performed gold.
On Today's Agenda
Bank of Canada's Overnight Rate: Canada's overnight interest rate remained at 1% (UTD). The BOC may continue its policy and keep the interest rate unchanged;
Australia Employment Report: in the recent report regarding July 2012 the rate of unemployment remained at 5.2%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) increased by 14k; the number of unemployed fell by 2.5k during July compared to June. This report may affect the Aussie dollar, which is strongly correlated with bullion rates;
Currencies / Bullion Market – September Update
The Euro/ USD declined on Tuesday by 0.21% to 1.2566. Further, other currencies including Aussie dollar depreciated on Tuesday against the USD by 0.21%. The linear correlation between gold and Euro is still strong and positive: during August-September, the correlation between the gold and EURO/USD was 0.49. Therefore, if the Euro will continue to fall against the USD, it could also curb the rally of precious metals.
The rally of precious metals might change direction today if other commodities, stock and "risk currencies" will continue to trade down. The renewed speculations around the future steps of the Fed regarding its quantitative easing plan will keep the rates of precious metals high. The speculations around the future steps of its bond purchase program that will help struggling countries such as Spain and Italy could also keep the Euro and bullion high. Today's items of the Australian employment report, German auction and BOC rate decision might have a modest effect on the AUD, USD, and CAD, respectively. In such a case, these currencies could also affect the direction of gold and silver. If BOC will change its interest rate it could also affect the CAD which is strongly correlated with bullion.
For further reading: Gold and Silver Monthly Outlook for September
By: Lior Cohen, M.A. in Economics, Commodities Analyst and Blogger at Trading NRG
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