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Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Weekly Outlook 09.03.2012

Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Weekly Outlook 09.03.2012

2012-09-04 12:05:00
Lior Cohen: Commodities Analyst,
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During last week, gold and silver rose, mainly on Friday following Bernanke's speech at Jackson Hole. Despite the recent rally of bullion prices, I still think it's too early to expect another QE program. Here is a short forecast for September 3rd to 7th; this includes a fundamental analysis of the main publications and speeches that may affect precious metals markets including: Mario Draghi's speech, U.S manufacturing PMI, MPC rate decision and purchase program, U.S non-farm payroll report, Canada's rate decision, Australia's GDP for Q2, ECB rate decision and U.S. jobless claims.

The video report has an outlook of gold and silver for the main publications and events that may affect precious metals during September 3rd to 7th. Some of these reports include:

Tuesday – U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI: During July the index edged up to 49.8%, which means the manufacturing is still contracting; this index may affect forex, crude oil and natural gas markets;

Thursday – ECB Rate Decision: Since many EU countries are still struggling, ECB might decide to make another rate cut in the near future by another 0.25pp. If ECB will cut the rate again, it may affect the Euro;

Friday – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report: in the recent report for July, the labor market expanded by a higher than expected rate: the number of non-farm payroll employment increased by 163k; the U.S unemployment rate reached 8.3%; if the upcoming report will continue to show growth of above 120 thousand (in additional jobs), this may lower the chances of the Fed introducing additional stimulus plan in 2012; this report may affect not only the USD, but also commodities;

In conclusion, I guess gold and silver prices will continue to rise on a weekly scale but at a lower pace then they did during the previous week. Following the hike in bullion rate on the last day of the week mainly due to Bernanke's speech at Jackson Hole, there might be a correction, assuming all things equal, on the first day of the week. The bullion market might zigzag during the first few days of the week. The upcoming interest rate decisions by ECB, RBA, BOC and MPC could affect the forex markets in Europe, Australia, Canada and Great Britain, respectively. If any of these Central Banks will decide to cut the interest rates it could also affect the bullion market. The main report of the week will be the non-farm payroll report. If this report will show another substantial growth – say above 120k in jobs – this could rally the commodities and stocks markets.

There are several other reports that could affect precious metals rates: if the U.S manufacturing PMI will dwindle this could positively affect bullion rates. The ECB President's speech at the beginning of the week could clear up some of the speculations around the future steps of ECB in the near future. Finally, if the Euro, Aussie dollar and other exchange rates will further appreciate against the USD, this could also pull up precious metals.

For further reading: Gold and Silver Outlook for September

By: Lior Cohen, M.A. in Economics, Commodities Analyst and Blogger at Trading NRG

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