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Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 08.01.2012

Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 08.01.2012

2012-08-01 11:41:00
Lior Cohen: Commodities Analyst,

Bullion rates didn't do much on the last day of July as both gold and silver prices edged down. Many other commodities rates such as oil prices and U.S stock markets also declined. Today, the FOMC will conclude a two day meeting; the FOMC will publish a statement that could affect the forex and commodities markets. The Euro changed direction and rose yesterday. U.S Consumer Confidence changed direction and rose in the previous month, but this news didn't help rally the markets. China's manufacturing PMI inched down to 50.1 in July (it was 50.2 in June). This news might adversely affect commodities rates during the day. On today's agenda: U.S. ISM Manufacturing, GB Manufacturing PMI, ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll, Spanish Flash Manufacturing PMI, Australian Trade Balance.

Gold declined on Tuesday by 0.58% to $1,614.0; Silver also fell by 0.42% to $27.91. During July, gold rose by 0.65%; silver, by 1.09%.

The ratio between the two precious metals declined again on Tuesday to 57.84. During last month the ratio edged down by 0.44% as gold slightly under-performed silver.

Guest_Commentary_Gold_Silver_Daily_Outlook_August_1_2012_body_Ratio_August_1.png, Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 08.01.2012

On Today's Agenda

Statement of the FOMC Meeting: The recent appreciation of the USD, the low growth rate in employment and GDP for Q2 are probably pulling the odds up of another QE in the horizon. I think the FOMC won't announce today of another stimulus plan. I speculate if there won't any announcement of QE3 or any hints of the Fed moving toward this direction in the near future, bullion rates are likely to fall;

Currencies / Bullion– July/August Update

The Euro/USD changed direction on Tuesday and rose by 0.36% to 1.2304. Alternatively, other currencies including AUD and CAD nearly didn't move on Tuesday against the USD. The correlations between gold and the above-mentioned rates remain robust: during the month, the correlation between the gold and EURO/USD reached 0.64 (daily percent changes). Thus, if the Euro and AUD will decline, they may also pull down precious metals.

Daily Outlook

The FOMC meeting will conclude today; until the release of the statement there could be renewed speculation over the FOMC decision which could pressure bullion rates up. Eventually, I think the Fed won't announce of any change in the monetary policy, which will result in the fall of commodities rates. The volatility might remain low until after the FOMC meeting. Finally, the upcoming American, British and Spanish manufacturing PMI could affect not only the forex markets but also bullion rates. If the Euro and other "risk currencies" will trade down then they could also pull down precious metals.

For further reading: Gold and Silver Monthly Outlook for August

By: Lior Cohen, M.A. in Economics, Commodities Analyst and Blogger at Trading NRG

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