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Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Weekly Outlook 07.23.2012

Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Weekly Outlook 07.23.2012

2012-07-23 11:53:00
Lior Cohen: Commodities Analyst,
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Last week gold and silver resumed their downward trend and edged down during most of last week. Bernanke didn't hint of stimulus plan in his testimonies at the Hill; he also didn't offer any information about the future steps of the FOMC. According to the recent reports that came out last week the U.S housing starts rose during June, while Philly Fed index remained negative but slightly rose. All these reports paint a mixed signal as to the economic progress of the U.S. If the upcoming U.S reports will paint a clearer picture of the developments in the U.S, then they may have a more substantial effect on the bullion market.

The video report presents an outlook of gold and silver for the main publications the main publications and events that may affect precious metals between July 23rd and July 27th. Some of these reports include:

During last week gold slipped by 0.58%; further, during said time the average rate reached $1,583.02 /t. oz which is 0.17% above the previous week's average rate of $1,580.38 /t. oz. Silver also edged down on a weekly scale by 0.24%.

Monday– China flash Manufacturing PMI: according to the HSBC Manufacturing PMI update for June 2012 the Manufacturing PMI slipped to 48.1; this index indicates the economic progress of China's manufacturing sectors; if this negative growth will continue, this may also adversely affect commodities;

Friday – First U.S GDP 2Q 2012 Estimate: This will be the first estimate of U.S's second quarter 2012 real GDP growth. In the recent estimate the U.S GDP during the first quarter expanded by 1.9%. If there will be a sharp shift in the growth rate from Q1 to Q2 this could affect not only the US dollar but also commodities prices. This could also influence FOMC members in anticipation for next week's FOMC meeting.

I guess the bullion market will continue to show weakness as precious metals rates will further decline. This downward trend might have a moderate curve especially if the upcoming U.S reports won't present any substantial changes. The upcoming reports from China, Canada, Euro Area and U.S such as manufacturing PMI, retails sales, and housing market reports might affect the commodities and forex markets. If these reports will show little growth in these economies then they might adversely affect commodities rates including precious metals. The speech of Bernanke might affect the markets if he will hint of the possibility of QE3 in the near future. But I guess this won't be the case as it was last week when he testified at the hill.

By: Lior Cohen, M.A. in Economics, Commodities Analyst and Blogger at Trading NRG

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