News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Dollar's tumble this past week was an abrupt one. We'll see if inflation pressures trigger a shift in risk and rate expectations in the US which could turn the USD's bearings. Meanwhile, a pair I haven't highlighted ... https://t.co/yXl1aoOlIy https://t.co/TWV7tqv2y8
  • $DOGEUSD's daily range post Elon SNL spot is 0.2900. That may not sound like a lot but the current spot rate is ~ 0.5600. The lower wick (reversal from Sunday's low) is a 35% recovery from the low. A speculator's market, not an investor's. https://t.co/hAjg8YO7xA
  • What are some factors driving AUD? Get your free forecast for this quarter here:https://t.co/z85CIVYiuK #DailyFXGuides https://t.co/ZhVyZvw5Ii
  • Last week ended well for $EURUSD, with Friday’s shockingly poor US jobs data giving it a lift, and this week could well see its advance extend if it can break conclusively above resistance at 1.2150. Get your market update from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/EFPGUI8Uxc https://t.co/LZA6oXsmJO
  • $GBPUSD broke higher from a Symmetrical Triangle pattern late last week. Meanwhile, $EURGBP remains largely rangebound. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here: https://t.co/hnjGCww0ET https://t.co/0LcIv5Yudg
  • The continuity seen across these volatility cycles is a good thing. Historical precedence offer a blueprint for identifying conditions supportive for a vol-event to occur, and how they may unfold. Deepen your knowledge of historical volatility here: https://t.co/vg7w10la3j https://t.co/0gwSneZjOL
  • Another week of record breaking gains in the alt-coin space, while Ethereum (ETH) continues to print fresh highs and eats into Bitcoin’s (BTC) market dominance. Get your market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/robpKfDf8U https://t.co/3sOzL01rcI
  • The non-farm payroll (NFP) figure is a key economic indicator for the United States economy. It is also referred to as the monthly market mover. Find out why it has been given this nickname here: https://t.co/yOUVEEqhc5 https://t.co/K1F3QlB8ik
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/cXImPrjl8x
  • Crude Oil Forecast: Oil Prices Edge Lower Toward Trend Support -via @DailyFX WTI #CrudeOil closed the week slightly higher on balance, but the commodity is struggling at resistance as bears look to challenge trend support. Link to Full Analysis: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2021/05/08/crude-oil-forecast-oil-prices-edge-lower-toward-trend-support.html #OOTT https://t.co/MvtP36QxY8
Guest Commentary: Slovenia Doesn't Need a Bailout, as Long as the Mood Doesn't Deteriorate

Guest Commentary: Slovenia Doesn't Need a Bailout, as Long as the Mood Doesn't Deteriorate

Yohay Elam, Forex Crunch,

Talks about a bailout for Slovenia have been circling in the markets, and have been denied at the recent Eurogroup meeting. Given past declarations, denials meant that a bailout is imminent.

However, looking at Slovenia, the situation there isn't that bad. What could lead the country to the hands of the troika would be a deterioration of the mood in Europe, but not Slovenia's internal issues.

Slovenia was the richest Yugoslav region and suffered the least from its succession from the Yugoslavia. When it joined the European Union in 2004, it was praised as being well prepared. It was also praised when joining the euro in 2007.

Its metrics still seem sound. The Debt to GDP ratio is at 47.6%, well under the 80% euro-zone average. The unemployment rate of 8%, well below the euro-zone rate of 11.1%.

The bigger issues in Slovenia are with the banks: Nova Ljubljanska Banka (NLB) lacked sufficient funds according to the recent requirement of 9% Tier 1 capital. The relatively low debt-to-GDP ratio allowed the government to come to Slovenia's aid. This is what pushed Slovenian yields to higher ground.

This does weigh on the deficit, but the government already took measures to curb spending. Slovenia sees the deficit falling from 6% in 2012 to 3% in 2013.

All in all, Slovenia is doing OK and isn't comparable to Greece.

What could force Slovenia to take a bailout? A further deterioration or a "discovery" about the bank debt could trigger asking for external help, but this doesn't seem to be on the cards now.

A comparison of Slovenia to Greece. Such a statement by PM Janez Jansa, when he wanted parliament to approve more austerity, raised concerns. More talk could worsen the situation.

A Greek exit of the euro-zone: This could result in a blind credit rating downgrade of euro-zone countries by rating agencies, and Slovenia will not be spared.

A heightened exodus of funds from all euro-area countries: As investors move money away from the EMU, a country like Slovenia could suffer, even if it is doing relatively well.

Slovenia has a population of 2 million citizens. While yet another bailout in Europe is bad news, the real economic is not comparable to any small modification in the aid needed by Spain.

Further reading: Finland Threatens to Leave Euro-Zone

By Yohay Elam, Forex Crunch

Would you like to see more third-party contributors on DailyFX? For questions and comments, please send them to research@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES