Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 07.17.2012
By Lior Cohen
Bullion didn't do much on the first day of the week. The U.S retails sales report for June came out yesterday and showed a slight decrease of 0.5% (M-o-M). On today's agenda: Bernanke's Testimony in the Senate, U.S Core Consumer Price Index, Great Britain CPI, Governor King will give a speech, German ZEW economic sentiment and Bank of Canada's Overnight Rate.
Gold price edged down on Monday by 0.03% to $1,591.6; Silver also decreased by 0.18% to $27.32. During July, gold declined by 0.79% and silver by 1.05%.
The chart bellow shows the normalized rates of these precious metals during July (normalized to 100 as of June 29th).
On Today's Agenda
Bernanke's Testimony: Following the recent publication of the minutes of the FOMC meeting, if Bernanke will hint of another stimulus plan it could rally the commodities markets. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve will testify before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs in the U.S Senate. The title of the speech is "Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress";
U.S Core CPI: During May, the core CPI edged up by 0.2% (M-o-M) and the index increased over the last 12 months by 2.3%; the CPI declined last month by 0.3%;
BOC Rate Decision: The Bank of Canada will publish its decision regarding the overnight interest rate, which remained flat at 1% in the previous decision.
Currencies / Bullion – July Update
The Euro/USD edged up on Monday by 0.18% to 1.2271. Further, other exchange rates such as the AUD also slightly appreciated against the USD. The linear correlation between gold and Euro/USD is 0.70 (daily percent changes, for the last few weeks). If the Euro/USD and AUD/USD will resume their descent, they could adversely affect precious metals.
Bullion started off the week with little movement but they may resume their downward trend if the testimony of Bernanke won't offer any hints of the Fed's intent to stimulate the U.S economy by issuing another quantitative easing plan. The upcoming reports mainly U.S core CPI may affect U.S stocks, forex and commodities markets. If BOC will change its monetary policy it may affect not only the Canadian dollar but also bullion rates that are strongly linked to this currency.
For further reading:Gold & Silver | Weekly Outlook July 16-20
By: Lior Cohen, M.A. in Economics, Commodities Analyst and Blogger at Trading NRG
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