Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Weekly Outlook for June 18-22
Last week gold and silver didn't do much; Gold had a steady upward trend; silver increased every day except on Thursday. Despite the testimony of Bernanke from the previous week, the speculations continue to run high of the Fed announcing next week of another stimulus plan. The upcoming FOMC meeting could stir up the markets but I suspect it will eventually be just another storm in a teacup. In Europe many anticipate for the results of the Greek elections and how this round might affect Greece leaving the EU. This upcoming week there are several reports on the agenda that may affect bullion. The main events will revolve around Greek elections and the aftermath, FOMC meeting, U.S Philly Fed index, China's manufacturing PMI, G20 Meeting and U.S housing starts.
Gold rose during last week by 2.31%; Silver also increased on a weekly scale by 0.94%. Furthermore, during last week the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) also rose by 2% and reached by June 15th 157.84.
In the video link presents a gold and silver outlook for the main publications, events and reports that may affect precious metals between June 18th and 22nd. Some of these reports include:
Tuesday – U.S. Housing Starts: the U.S Census Bureau will present the U.S housing starts for May 2012; this report was historically correlated with gold– as housing starts rose, gold tended to decline the following day (even when controlling to the U.S dollar effect); in the previous report, the adjusted annual rate reached 717,000 in April 2012, which was 2.6% above March's rate;
Wednesday – FOMC Meeting (Statement& Press Conference): I think the FOMC won't announce of another stimulus plan, especially since the U.S's economic progress is still growing and especially after the recent testimony of Bernanke; the FOMC statement may affect the US dollar and more than that it will affect bullion; I speculate if there won't be another call for a stimulus plan or there won't be another hint moving toward this direction in the near future, precious metals are likely to fall; if the FOMC will consider another stimulus plan it could push up bullion;
Wednesday – China flash Manufacturing PMI: according to the HSBC Manufacturing PMI report for April 2012 the Manufacturing PMI edged down to 48.7; if this negative growth will continue, this may also adversely affect commodities;
Thursday – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: in the latest report the jobless claims rose by 6k to 386,000; this upcoming weekly update may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities rates;
Thursday – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey presents an estimate for the shifts of the US economy as it measures the manufacturing conditions. In the previous May survey, the growth rate fell from +8.5 in April to -5.8 in May 2012. If this trend will continue this index may adversely affect USD and gold (the recent Philly Fed review);
In conclusion, I speculate precious metals might shift between gains and losses with an unclear trend. The results of the Greek elections could affect the Euro/USD and consequently bullion rates. On the other hand the results of the FOMC meeting could affect directly bullion especially if the Fed will introduce another stimulus plan or even hint of its possibility in the near future. In such a case bullion is likely to rise. But I don't think the Fed will do so and in such a case precious metals are likely to continue to dwindle. The upcoming reports regarding the U.S including the Philly Fed, housing starts, existing home sales and jobless claims, could affect not only the USD, but also gold and silver: if the U.S reports will continue be negative or won't meet expectations it could further push up precious metals.
This gold and silver outlook was first presents in Trading NRG
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By: Lior Cohen, M.A. in Economics, Commodities Analyst and Blogger at Trading NRG
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