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Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 06.01.2012

Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 06.01.2012

2012-06-01 14:33:00
Lior Cohen, Energy Analyst for Trading NRG,
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Gold and silver changed direction again and edged down on the last day of the month. The U.S GDP for Q1 2012 was revised down to 1.9%; U.S jobless claims rose last week. On today's agenda: GB Manufacturing PMI, Canada's GDP by Industry, U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI and U.S. non-farm payroll report.

Gold edged down on Thursday by 0.1% to $1,564; silver also decreased by 0.81% to $27.76. During the month gold traded down by 6.01% and silver by 10.51%. Furthermore, the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) also edged down yesterday by 0.19% and reached by May 31st 151.62, which is still a low rate for 2012.

The ratio between the two metals rose on Thursday to 56.35. During the month the ratio increased by 5.03% as silver has moderately under-performed gold during the month.

Guest_Commentary_Gold_Silver_Daily_Outlook_06.01.2012_body_Ratio_June_1.png, Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 06.01.2012

U.S. GDP was revised down to 1.9% in Q1 2012

According to the recent report, the growth rate of the real U.S GDP during the Q1 of 2012 (second estimate) was 1.9% in annual growth. This is a revised down growth rate from the first estimate of the U.S GDP in which the growth rate was 2.2%.

On Today's Agenda

U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report: this will be the major report of the week and could have some significant effect on bullion rates.

In the previous U.S employment report for April 2012, the number of non-farm payroll increased by 115k;

According the ADP report, the U.S employment increased by only 133k during May 2012; if the upcoming report will be close to this figure, it could suggest the U.S labor market is only slowly improving and could affect not only the USD (adversely), but also bullion (positively);

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to the monthly changes in the manufacturing sector on a national level during May 2012. During April 2012 the index rose to 54.8%, which means the manufacturing is growing at a faster rate;

Currencies / Bullion Market – May Update

The Euro/USD slipped on Thursday by 0.01% to 1.2366. Furthermore, "risk currencies" depreciated during Thursday against the USD. If the USD will change direction and fall against the Euro, it might also positively affect bullion rates.

Daily Outlook

Bullion didn't do much yesterday as the U.S reports weren't positive but didn't show much movement. The upcoming U.S reports including non-farm payroll report and U.S Manufacturing PMI might affect not only forex but also commodities. If the employment will expand by fewer than 130k, I speculate this could help rally bullion rates and to close the week on a positive note.

This gold and silver prices outlook was first presents in Trading NRG

For further reading:Gold and Silver Monthly Outlook for June

By: Lior Cohen, M.A. in Economics, Commodities Analyst and Blogger at Trading NRG

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