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Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 05.31.2012

Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 05.31.2012

2012-05-31 18:58:00
Lior Cohen, Energy Analyst for Trading NRG,
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Gold and silver changed direction and bounced back during yesterday's trading. On the other hand many other commodities such as crude oil and currencies including Euro and Aussie dollar tumbled down. The European debt crisis continues to weaken the Euro and it drags along with it other commodities and currencies. The Italian and Spanish bond sales didn't go well and may have contributed to the markets' decline. The disappointing U.S pending home sales may have contributed to the rally in bullion rates. On today's agenda: German Retail Sales, Euro Area Annual Inflation, ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll, U.S. GDP 1Q 2012, U.S. Jobless Claims, China Manufacturing PMI and FOMC Member Pianalto will give a speech.

Gold bounced back on Wednesday by 0.95% to $1,565; silver also increased by 0.69% to $27.98. During the month gold traded down by 5.92% and silver by 9.78%.

Guest_Commentary_Gold_Silver_Daily_Outlook_05.31.2012_body_Gold_May_31.png, Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 05.31.2012

The chart below shows the normalized rates of these metals during the past couple of weeks (normalized to 100 as of May 15th). The chart shows that despite the sharp shifts and turns in bullion rates in the past couple of weeks, gold price is still around the $1,550 mark and silver around $27-$28 mark.

U.S. Pending Home Sales Declined

According to the recent report, the U.S. pending home sales index decreased by 5.5% in April, from a revised figure of 101.1 to 95.5

This report comes despite the rise in new and existing home sales in April. This news may signal the housing market isn't picking up.

On Today's Agenda

Second Estimate of U.S GDP for first quarter of 2012: In the first estimate the GDP expanded by 2.2% (annual rate). If the second estimate will be much different than the first it could influence forex and bullion traders (for the first estimate of 1Q GDP).

U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: in the latest update the jobless claims didn't change much at 370,000; this upcoming weekly report may affect the USD and consequently commodities rates;

Currencies / Bullion Market – May Update

The Euro/USD tumbled down its on Wednesday by 1.09% to 1.2367. Furthermore, "risk currencies" such as the AUD and CAD also sharply depreciated. If the USD will continue to rise against the Euro, it might also adversely affect bullion (even though this wasn't the case yesterday).

Daily Outlook

The sharp fall in the Euro and other commodities including WTI oil and natural gas didn't coincide with the rise in bullion. The U.S pending home sales may have had some to do with the rise in bullion. Despite the rally in precious metals pricesduring yesterday there is still little evidence to support a shift in their trend. The tumble of the Euro is likely to adversely affect bullion rates even though it didn't seem to do so yesterday. There are many reports on today's agenda: If the U.S reports will be positive and will meet expectations including U.S GDP, jobless claims then they are likely to adversely affect bullion. On the other hand if the Euro related news and China's manufacturing PMI will be positive, it could positively affect not only metals but also other commodities.

This gold and silver prices outlook was first presents in Trading NRG

For further reading:

How will a Greek Exit Affect Gold and Silver?

Gold and Silver Outlook for June

By: Lior Cohen, M.A. in Economics, Commodities Analyst and Blogger at Trading NRG

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