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Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Weekly Outlook for May 28 - June 1

Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Weekly Outlook for May 28 - June 1

2012-05-28 13:02:00
Lior Cohen, Energy Analyst for Trading NRG,
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Last week gold and silver continued with their downward trend during most of the week up to Thursday. Will this downward trend continue as we are entering the last week of May? During last week the main news items were related to the U.S housing market: the U.S new home sales and existing home sales rose during April. This news may have adversely affected bullion. The U.S Jobless claims didn't change but the core durable goods slightly rose in April. By the end of the week commodities rallied from their downward trend perhaps as a correction.

In Europe there is still a lot of speculation around Grexit. I have reviewed the potential ramifications on gold if Greece will exit the EU.

During last week gold declined during the first several days but rose on Thursday and Friday. During last week it fell by 1.3%. Silver also decreased on a weekly scale by 1.15%. Furthermore, during last week the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) also fell by 1.2% and reached by May 25th 152.68, which is still a low rate for 2012.

The video link presents a gold and silver outlook for the main publications and events that may affect gold and silver between May 28th and June 1st. Some of these reports and events include:

Wednesday 15:00 – U.S. Pending Home Sales: In the previous report the pending home sales index increased by 4.1%. Based on last week's results on housing sales the pending sales may continue to rise. In such a case US dollar may strengthen;

Thursday 13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims: In the latest update the jobless claims didn't change much at 370,000; this upcoming weekly report may affect the U.S dollar;

Thursday 13:30 – Second Estimate of U.S GDP 1Q 2012: This will be the second estimate of U.S's Q1 2012 real GDP. In the first estimate the GDP expanded by 2.2%. If the second estimate will be much different than the first estimate it could affect commodities (for the first estimate of 1Q GDP).

Friday 13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll: in the recent report regarding April 2012, the labor market didn't expand much as it did during the first quarter as the number of non-farm payroll employment rose by only 115k; this report might affect not only the U.S dollar, but also bullion (see here my last review on the U.S employment report).

In conclusion, I still speculate precious metals will continue their slow paced downward trend during most of the week: The upcoming U.S reports including the non-farm payroll report and second estimate of GDP for Q1 might affect not only the USD, but also bullion: if the U.S employment will continue to dwindle it could help rally precious metals by the end of the week and raise again the speculation of a future intervention by the Fed.

The developments in Europe including Greece, the EU related reports and the upcoming speech by President Draghi might also affect the Euro, which could consequently also affect bullion. Finally the Asian markets including India and China could also adversely affect bullion rates as long as these countries will continue to show weakness.

This gold and silver outlook was first presents in Trading NRG

For further reading:

Weekly Outlook for Financial Market for May 28 –June 1

How will a Greek Exit Affect Gold and Silver?

By: Lior Cohen, M.A. in Economics, Commodities Analyst and Blogger at Trading NRG

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