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Guest Commentary: Oil Price Weekly Outlook May 21-25

Guest Commentary: Oil Price Weekly Outlook May 21-25

2012-05-21 16:15:00
Lior Cohen, Energy Analyst for Trading NRG,
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Oil prices continued their downward trend during most of last week. The Brent premium over WTI slightly increased again to the $15 -$17 range. During the upcoming week there are several reports and publications that may affect the oil market including the U.S core durable goods, new and existing home sales reports and U.S jobless claims.

By Friday, May 18th oil price (WTI) declined by 1.17% and reached $91.48/b – the lowest price this year so far; Brent on the other hand edged up by 0.06% to $107.98/b; during last week, WTI spot oil declined by 4.84% and Brent oil by 3.63%.

In the chart below are the developments in WTI and Brent during May (prices are normalized to April 30th).

Guest_Commentary_Oil_Prices_Weekly_Outlook_May_21-25_body_oil__21-25_May.png, Guest Commentary: Oil Price Weekly Outlook May 21-25

Oil Stockpiles –Slightly Rose by 2.8Mb

U.S. oil stockpiles slightly increased last week by 2.8 million bl. For the week ending on May 11th oil stockpiles reached 1,769.92 million barrels.

The upcoming report will be published on Wednesday, May 23rd and will refer to the week ending on May 18th.

Oil Related News Items

Wednesday– U.S. New Home Sales:in the latest update, the sales of new homes declined to an annual rate of 328,000 – a 7.1% decrease (month over month); if the home sales will continue to fall, it may further indicate a slowdown in the U.S real estate market which may also affect the strength of the USD.

Thursday– U.S. Jobless Claims: in the latest report the jobless claims remained unchanged at 370,000; this upcoming weekly report may affect commodities;

Thursday– U.S Durable Goods: This report may indirectly show the shifts in U.S. demand for oil. As of March, new orders of manufactured durable goods fell by $8.4 billion; if this report will continue to be negative then it could adversely affect oil market;

Oil Outlook

In the upcoming week the U.S core durable goods and new and existing home sales reports will be published. These reports will presents the shifts in U.S economy and may affect commodities prices; if these reports' figures won't meet the current expectations then they may adversely affect oil prices. If the U.S stock market will continue to decline this may adversely affect oil. Finally, if major currencies including will further depreciate against the USD, then they may also drag down oil.

I speculate during the following week, WTI will trade between $88 and $94 and Brent between $104 and $111.

For further reading:

Weekly Outlook for May 21-25 2012

Gold and Silver Weekly Outlook for May 21-25

By: Lior Cohen, M.A. in Economics, Commodities Analyst and Blogger at Trading NRG

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