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Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Weekly Outlook for May 21-25

Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Weekly Outlook for May 21-25

2012-05-21 15:14:00
Lior Cohen, Energy Analyst for Trading NRG,
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Last week gold and silver changed direction from a downward trend to a sudden steep increase on Thursday and Friday. Could this mean there is some fundamental shift in the bullion market that warrants such a shift? The main noteworthy news that might have affected metals was the tumble in the Philly Fed Index and the minutes of the recent FOMC meeting. I suspect these two items may have rekindled the old question "will there be another QE program in the near future?" This upcoming week there are items on the agenda that may affect the bullion. The main publications will revolve around the U.S core durable goods, China's manufacturing PMI, U.S new and existing home sales Japan's trade balance, and Germany's business climate. Of course the ongoing political developments in Greece and the economic slowdown in Spain may also keep the news cycle busy.

During last week Gold rose by 0.5%; Silver declined on a weekly scale by 0.61%. Furthermore, during last week the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) also rose by 0.64% and reached by May 18th 154.55, which is still a low rate for 2012.

The video link presents a gold and silver outlook for the main publications, public speeches and events that may affect bullion between May 21st and May 25th; the video includes reviewing the main reports, events, decisions and publications that will come out during the days to come. Some of these reports and events are:

Tuesday – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will pertain to the shifts in U.S. existing home sales during April 2012; in the previous report regarding March 2012 the number of homes sold decreased: the seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.48 million home sales – a 2.3% decline; if this trend will continue it may curb the recent rally in the USD;

Wednesday – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will present the developments in new home sales April 2012; in the previous update, the sales of new homes declined to an annual rate of 328,000 – a 7.1% decrease (month over month); if the number of home sales will continue to decline, it may further indicate a slowdown in the U.S real estate market which may also affect the strength of the USD.

Thursday – U.S. Jobless Claims Report: in the latest report the jobless claims remained unchanged at 370,000; this upcoming weekly report may affect the path of the U.S dollar and consequently bullion prices;

Thursday – U.S Core Durable Goods: This report may indirectly show the shifts in U.S. demand for commodities. According to March 2012, new orders of manufactured durable goods decreased by $8.4 billion to $203 billion; if this report will continue to be negative then it could weaken the US dollar and also affect bullion prices;

In conclusion, I still speculate the precious metals prices won't show strength and will resume their downward trend on a weekly scale: the recent rally from the end of last week might continue at the beginning of the week on pure momentum as the speculation revolving the future steps of the Fed will continue. I don't this there is enough to go on for concluding there will be QE3. On the other hand if the upcoming U.S reports including the core durable goods, new and existing home sales and jobless claims won't meet expectations then the may further contribute to recovery of bullion. But if these reports will be positive then bullion might resume its descent. Finally, The EU related news including the developments in Greece, Spain and Italy and the upcoming speech by President Draghi might also play a role in the forex markets mainly affecting the Euro, which could consequently also affect metals.

This gold and silver prices forecast was first presents in Trading NRG

For further reading:

Weekly Outlook for May 21 –25

Gold & Silver | Weekly Recap May 14-18

By: Lior Cohen, M.A. in Economics, Commodities Analyst and Blogger at Trading NRG

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