Guest Commentary: MarketVisionTV - Stay 'Extremely Vigilant' on the EURUSD!
* A flat bottomed triangle in the now 1.30-1.3285 range is nearly over.
* The current decline to attack the 1.30 pivot should be the last in the range.
* The outcome of consolidation should be indicated by the speed of the price action and how the Euro treats the current NY Gap.
One of the hardest tools to use or indeed explain is when to use trending analysis as opposed to consolidation analysis..in Elliott Wave terms 5 waves as opposed to 3.
Although the Euro has entered the last stages of the flat bottomed triangle consolidation in the 1.30 to now 1.3285 range, the current break down is likely a trend move . What we have described as the Extreme Vigilance trade for a reason..a potential analogy inspired by Cable.
As such the outstanding NY gap from 1.3205..a likely break away gap is likely to remain unfilled.. even with part gap filling to 1.3170-80 38.2%.. before t extends to the initial 1.3105 target in a five wave trend decline. Again this is likely to prompt reaction, but as 1.3205 now caps we can expect a final trend break down to attack the 1.2995 pivot and a critical near term juncture.
We are staying short and looking to add on a rally with 1.3290 stops now. But back over 1.3205 diffuses the current bearishness slowing the price action and suggesting the eventual break down is likely to hold 1.29995 and therefore a buying opportunity for an eventual break up through 1.3285 beyond 1.3385.
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