Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 05.02.2012
Gold and silver slightly declined on Tuesday. The news of the rate reduction of RBA adversely affected the AUD. The U.S manufacturing PMI increased to 54.8, an increase of 1.4 from March's reading. This news may have helped rally the U.S stock market and oil yesterday and also pull down a bit metals. On today's agenda: Euro Area Unemployment Rate, ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll and U.S Factory Orders.
On Today's Agenda
U.S Factory Orders: This report will show the changes in U.S. factory orders of manufactured durable goods during February;
Euro Area Unemployment Rate: the Euro Area unemployment rate edged up to 10.8% in February; if this upward trend will continue it may adversely affect the Euro;
ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll:ADP will announce its estimate for the upcoming U.S non-farm payroll change during the month of April 2012 in anticipation for the upcoming no-farm report to be published by Friday;
Forex / Bullion - May Update
The Euro/USD slipped on Tuesday by 0.03% to 1.3235; furthermore, the AUD also depreciated on Monday against the USD by 0.91%. The recent news of RBA's rate reduction was the big headlines pulling down the Aussie dollar. The chart below shows the development of the linear correlation between bullion and Euro/USD in 2011 and 2012. Since the Euro is strongly and positively correlated with gold and silver, if the USD will continue to appreciate against the Euro and AUD, this may affect bullion.
Gold and silver slightly declined during the past couple of days. The upcoming U.S reports may continue to adversely affect bullion especially if their reports will be positive and will coincide with the expectations. If the EU unemployment report will present another increase in rate of unemployment this may adversely affect the Euro, which is strongly linked with bullion prices and thus may also adversely affected them.
This gold and silver outlook report was first presents in Trading NRG
For further reading:Gold and Silver Outlook for May 2012
By: Lior Cohen, M.A. in Economics, Commodities Analyst and Blogger at Trading NRG
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