Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Weekly Outlook for April 30 - May 4
Last week gold slightly increased despite the expectations that the FOMC meeting will adversely affect bullion prices. Silver price slightly declined last week. The U.S GDP for Q1 2012 didn't reach expectations and may have been among the factors to pull up precious metals prices on Friday. This upcoming week there are many news items on the agenda that may affect gold and silver. The main events of the week will revolve the U.S manufacturing production, U.S non-farm payroll report and ECB rate decision and monetary policy.
In this analysis I use fundamental analysis to examine how the upcoming events, decisions and financial reports may affect the direction of gold and silver.
This video on gold and silver prices provides a broad outlook for the major news and events that might affect the direction of metals during the week of week of April 30th to May 4th; the video includes reviewing the main reports, events, decisions and news items to be published during the upcoming week. Some of these reports and events include:
Monday– China Manufacturing PMI: according to the previous Manufacturing PMI report regarding March 2012 the Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.1; this index indicates the developments in China's manufacturing sectors; if this upward trend will continue, this may also positively affect commodities;
Tuesday – U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to the monthly development in the manufacturing sector on a national level during April 2012. During March 2012 the index edged up to 53.4%, which means the manufacturing is growing at a slightly faster pace;
Thursday – U.S. Jobless Claims: in the previous update the jobless claims slipped to 388k; this upcoming weekly report may affect the direction of the U.S dollar and consequently commodities prices;
Thursday – ECB Rate Decision: In previous rate decision the ECB left the rate flat at 1%; Due to the recent developments in Spain and Italy and ongoing perils the EU has forthcoming, ECB might consider introducing additional monetary easing steps (LTRO); if the ECB will make a move, it may affect the Euro;
Friday – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report: in the recent March report, the labor market as the number of non-farm payroll increased by only 120k; if the upcoming report will not reach the 180-200 thousand mark, this may have a sportive effect on bullion prices (see here my last review on the U.S employment report).
In conclusion, I speculate that if the U.S reports including the non-farm payroll report and Manufacturing PMI will beat or meet expectations then bullion might decrease. Finally, if the EU economy will continue to pose concerns that will adversely affect the Euro and bullion.
This gold and silver prices analysis was first presents in Trading NRG
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By: Lior Cohen, M.A. in Economics, Commodities Analyst and Blogger at Trading NRG
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