Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 04.24.2012
Gold and silver started off the week falling, much like the rest of the market including the Euro, oil prices, and stock markets. The disappointing manufacturing PMI of China and Euro-zone that contracted by 49.1 and 46, respectively may have been among the factors pulling down not only the Euro but also bullion. On today's agenda: a G7 Summit, Great Britain net borrowing, Canada's retails sales and U.S consumer confidence and new home sales reports.
Gold declined on Monday by 0.62% to $1,632.6; silver even more than gold sharply decreased by 3.53% to $30.6. During April, gold decreased by 2.35% and silver by 5.8%. This means the little rally that silver had last week was completely erased yesterday.
As indicated in the chart below the linear correlation between gold and silver was near the 0.9 mark, i.e. strong and positive relation; this means despite the different daily percent changes of gold and silver in recent days, their relation remains strong and robust.
On Today's Agenda
U.S Consumer Confidence: last month, the consumer confidence index decreased in March (M-o-M). The current expectations are that the April index may change direction and edge up; this report might affect commodities prices;
U.S. New Home Sales:in the last report (February 2012), the sales of new homes decreased by 1.6%; if the number of home sales will continue to decline, it may further indicate a slowdown in the U.S real estate market which may also affect the USD.
Gold and silver started off the week falling and this trend may continue during most of the week mainly if tomorrow's FOMC statement will reveal there is no additional stimulus plans in the horizon. Following yesterday's tumble in many financial markets there might be a moderate correction in today's trading (all things being equal) that bullion might also benefit. Finally, if the U.S reports including home sales and consumer confidence will not be positive this may weaken the USD and consequently help rally bullion.
This gold and silver prices outlook was first presents in Trading NRG
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By: Lior Cohen, M.A. in Economics, Commodities Analyst and Blogger at Trading NRG
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