Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 04.19.2012
Gold and silver declined yesterday and thus continue to dwindle with an unclear trend. Yesterday the IMF issued a report in which it stated European banks' financial problems are far from over and they may reduce their balance sheets by as much as $2.6 trillion. The IMF also forecasted the EU will contract in 2012 by 0.3% and expand by only 0.9% in 2013. This grim outlook may bring down a bit the Euro during today's trading. This comes after the IMF had announced the global growth forecast is 3.5% for 2012. There are several items on today's agenda. These items are: U.S Jobless Claims Weekly update, U.S. Existing Home Sales, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Bank of Canada's Monetary Policy report.
The Euro/USD also edged down on Wednesday by 0.14% to 1.3123; on the other hand, during yesterday's trading the AUD and CAD moderately appreciated against the USD. These currencies tend to be positively and linearly correlated with bullion. The chart below shows the development of the relation between the daily percent changes of the Euro/USD and gold during recent months. As indicated below the current relation varies but is still strong and robust. If the USD will depreciate against these currencies, this may signal bullion may rise.
On Today's Agenda
U.S. Jobless Claims Update: in the previous report the jobless claims rose to 380,000; this upcoming weekly update may affect the strength of the USD and consequently bullion;
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This survey provides an estimate for the progress of the US economy. In the previous survey, the growth rate moderately rose to +12.5. If this trend will continue this index may positively affect the USD; furthermore this may also adversely affect bullion as it may lower the chances of the Fed to issue another QEU program (the recent Philly Fed review);
Bullion kept moving with an unclear trend and may continue to do so in the days to come until the FOMC meeting next week. Today's reports to come out including the U.S jobless claims, U.S Philly Fed and existing home sales will show the changes in three main areas: employment, manufacturing and housing. I speculate that if these sectors will show progress they may positively affect the USD, lower the chances of another QE program and thus bring gold and silver slightly down during today's trading.
This gold and silver prices outlook was first presents in Trading NRG
For further reading:Gold and Silver Prices Weekly Outlook for April 16-20
By: Lior Cohen, M.A. in Economics, Commodities Analyst and Blogger at Trading NRG
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