Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 04.13.2012
Gold and silver rallied yesterday and with this gain they have both advanced from their tumble at the beginning of the month. The U.S jobless claims rose and thus may have been among the factors to pull down the US dollar. Today, there are several reports to come out including: U.S CPI, Great Britain PPI and U.S TIC Long Term Purchases.
The ratio between gold and silver declined to 51.67. In the chart below are the shifts in this ratio during April (up to date).
On Today's Agenda
U.S Core CPI:. Following the U.S PPI report that came out yesterday, in which the PPI remained unchanged while the U.S PPI excluding energy and food edged up by 0.3%, this may suggest the CPI will also remain flat while the core CPI might edge up. During February 2012, the core CPI rose by 0.4% (M-o-M) and also increased over the last 12 months by 2.2%; this report may affect the US dollar and consequently gold and silver;
Forex / Gold & Silver– April
The Euro/USD rose again on Thursday by 0.6% to 1.3188; furthermore, the Aussie dollar and Canadian dollar also sharply appreciated against the U.S. dollar by 1.36% and 0.93% respectively during yesterday’s trading. These currencies tend to be linearly correlated with the daily percent developments of gold and silver. Thus, if the Euro AUD will change direction and decline today, they may signal gold and silver may also pull back.
Metals bounced back yesterday after they didn’t do much on Wednesday. This rally coincided with the strengthening of the Euro, which is strongly positively linked with metals. The rest of the market including stocks and energy commodities also rose yesterday. If this direction will continue it may suggest that gold and silver will continue to trade up. The upcoming U.S reports including core CPI and TIC long term purchases may affect the strength of the USD and consequently bullion.
This gold and silver outlook was first published in Trading NRG
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By: Lior Cohen, M.A. in Economics, Commodities Analyst and Blogger at Trading NRG
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