News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here: https://t.co/4jsORznRTE https://t.co/Uz6LKXdR2k
  • Take a closer look visually at the most influential global importers and exporters here: https://t.co/G58J1dg6y3 https://t.co/fGi6YgqqQt
  • What suits your style of trading stocks or commodities? Find out what are the differences in these two markets here: https://t.co/BnA07cMV0s https://t.co/fdigOgkmio
  • A forex trader is strategic, disciplined and always switched on to the markets. Learn how to build an FX mindset here: https://t.co/tB3aAErd70 https://t.co/Ilqz8BWTk0
  • The final ‘full’ week of the year brings about the last wave of significant event risk from around the globe, including three central bank rate decisions (Fed, BOE, & BOJ). Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:https://t.co/PhqxSPlngI https://t.co/XX57vSjQwV
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here: https://t.co/kODPAfJE79 https://t.co/HOvzuOICQx
  • Ever wonder if there are other chart types that can be sued for technical analysis? HLOC charts are discussed in the following article as well as their pros and cons. Learn more here: https://t.co/qV3c7a4YR3 https://t.co/32hYzqhuZ9
  • The Australian Dollar sits on the crossroads of Treasury yields, the S&P 500 and US fiscal stimulus expectations. Will $AUDUSD gains slow? Chinese Q4 GDP and Australian jobs data are due. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/BsYmmWFYOH https://t.co/HhLqb2iVgk
  • #Gold prices have come under significant pressure to kick-off 2021. However, the formation of bullish technical patterns across multiple timeframes suggests that a rebound higher may be at hand. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here: https://t.co/Dpf8N4Fh0T https://t.co/pnZpnM9yT5
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Learn about the importance of the ISM manufacturing index here: https://t.co/Xr3xtoFpZy https://t.co/yCtLFemdNc
Guest Commentary: AUDUSD Analysis Significant Trade Development

Guest Commentary: AUDUSD Analysis Significant Trade Development

2012-04-13 02:00:00
Cory Mitchell, CMT, VantagePointTrading.com,

Recent Events: Aggressive rally in the AUDUSD means a bottom is likely in for this correction lower, but a few key levels remain in play.

AUDUSD Analysis – Long and Medium-Term

The trend remains higher for the AUDUSD with the trendline crossing near 1.02. A drop to that level brings the uptrend into question. Moving out to the weekly charts shows the trendline–which began in 2009–does not intersect until very near 1.00. From the long-term perspective this remains a bull market.

(Sorry about all the clutter on the chart. What it all is is clearer on the daily chart shown later)

Guest_Commentary_AUDUSD_Analysis_Significant_Trade_Development_body_audusd-weekly-april-12.png, Guest Commentary: AUDUSD Analysis Significant Trade Development

AUDUSD Weekly Chart with Trendlines and Proprietary Indicator

AUDUSD Analysis – Trading Term Outlook

The AUDUSD rallied aggressively on Thursday after moving into a support area and holding there for the last several days. In the previous analysis this support was called "An area which is likely to present a great buying opportunity." (See analysis fromApril 3)

Also pointed out in the previous analysis was that 1.0260 was likely to be highly significant, and that the low for this move is likely to occur between 1.03 and 1.0260. The actual low came in at 1.0226.

The strategy outlined a couple weeks ago for this last move down was: "I have scattered (buy) orders near 1.03 to 1.0260 with a stop just below 1.02."

Another trade may set up which presents a buying opportunity. This will occur once the pair moves above 1.0465, then pulls back but does not move below the recent low at 1.0226 and then begins to move higher again. So a few things need to occur to trigger another entry signal into the uptrend.

A move above 1.0465 means it is highly probable that higher rates will be seen before a move back below 1.0225. I am continuing to trade this as a longer-term uptrend, with the recent one month decline a correction.

Guest_Commentary_AUDUSD_Analysis_Significant_Trade_Development_body_audusd-daily-april-12.png, Guest Commentary: AUDUSD Analysis Significant Trade Development

AUDUSD Daily Chart with Trendlines Anticipated support and resistance boxes, Fibonacci Retracement levels and Proprietary Indicator

Seasonality:The seasonal pattern of the AUDUSD dictates that mid-March is usually a bottoming time, and the pair is likely to rally into the early part of May. This is a secondary indicator though. Price action matters much more.

Therefore, it is highly likely all time frames will align very shortly; short, medium and long-term will be up. The pair still needs to move above the recent high at 1.0465 in order to create a higher high and signal that this (short-term) correction is over.

1.0226 is likely the low for this correction, but if penetrated could take the pair towards 1.0025 and the long-term trendline.

AUDUSD Analysis – Trading Environment

The pair is trending. Trending strategies should be used based on the current environment. Buying/selling on new highs/lows may work, but waiting for pullbacks and entering as the pair once again begins to move with the trend is likely more suitable.

Daily Average Movement (2-week): 92.2 pips. Keep this in mind if setting daily targets.

Based on weekday volatility statistics (5 week average), Tuesday and Thursday are usually the most volatile for the pair, averaging closer to 120 pips. Monday, Wednesday and Friday are more likely to be between 80 and 100 pips of movement.

Average Weekly Volatility: Based on a 10 week ATR the pair is moving about 220 pips per week. Keep this in mind when considering whether your targets are likely to be hit next week.

Noteworthy Correlations to Other Pairs: Strong positive correlation to NZDUSD on a daily basis.

AUDUSD Analysis– Trading Strategy at this Time

  • Trades are currently in play from prior analyses (April 3 and prior):
  • Long anywhere near current levels (1.03 area). Ideal is near 1.03 down to 1.0260.
  • Stops below 1.02

Targets at 1.0515, 1.0585 and then another (or others) will likely be determined at a higher price and at a later date as the up move unfolds (if it [continues] to unfold).

With the pair currently trading above 1.04, this trade opportunity has passed, at least for now. Other opportunities may be presented soon though.

As mentioned prior, if 1.0465 is surpassed it is strong evidence that 1.0226 will be the low. Pullbacks which hold above that level are potential buying opportunities. That means waiting for pullbacks to stop and then begin moving higher before going long.

Additional Notes: Being long provides a positive rollover.

Cory Mitchell, CMT

Cory Mitchell is a proprietary trader and Chartered Market Technician specializing in short to medium-term technical strategies. He is the founder ofvantagepointtrading.com, a website dedicated to trader education and market analysis.

Would you like to see more third-party contributors on DailyFX? For questions and comments, please send them to research@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES