Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Weekly Outlook for April 9-13
Here is a short overview and an outlook for gold and silver the upcoming week of April 9th to 13th; this includes a short description of the main news items, public speeches, and events that may have affect metals during last week.
First, let’s have a quick overview for the main events of last week: Gold and silver started very strong, but then the minutes of the last FOMC meeting were published. In the minutes it was strongly suggested there is no need for the time being for any further intervention by the Fed (i.e. no additional stimulus plans) until the U.S economy will show additional signs of slowdown. Many commodities reacted the following day and plummeted including gold and silver. The following day gold and silver bounced back a bit as a correction to their fall. By the end of the week The U.S. labor force didn’t rise as many had expected: according to the recent U.S. employment report, the number of non-farm employees rose by 120,000.
As I have already explained in the April gold monthly report, historically, as the non-farm payrolls rose gold tended to decline; this correlation was mostly due to the effect this news had on the USD; the news of the moderate increase in the U.S. labor force during March could affect bullion in two different directions: it could have a positive effect on gold and silver because this slowdown might rekindle the speculation around another stimulus plan to be issued by the Fed. I think it’s still early to consider this figure as a shift in the economic growth of the U.S.
The video of gold and silver above provides a broad outlook for the main news, public speeches and events that may affect gold and silver during the week of April 9th to 13th; the video includes reviewing the main reports, events, decisions and news items that will come out during the upcoming week. Some of these reports and events include:
Monday–U.S. Federal Budget Balance: this upcoming publication will present the changes in the U.S federal balance for March 2012; this report indicates the government debt growth. In the last report regarding February the deficit sharply rose by $231 billion; this report may affect the strength of the US dollar and consequently bullion;
Thursday–American Trade Balance: This monthly report for February 2012 will present the developments in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, including commodities; The American trade balance report for January 2011 the goods and services deficit increased during the month to $52.6 billion.
Friday–U.S CPI: This monthly report will present the main changes in the core consumer price index during March 2012. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics in February 2012, the core CPI rose by 0.4% (M-o-M) and also increased over the last 12 months by 2.2%;
This weekly outlook on gold and silver was first published on Trading NRG
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By: Lior Cohen, M.A. in Economics, Commodities Analyst and Blogger at Trading NRG
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