Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 04.05.2012
Gold and silver tumbled during yesterday’s trading which was stem, in part, from the shift in market sentiment as a result of the recent publication of the minutes of the FOMC meeting back from March. On top of that according the ADP the U.S non farm payroll rose by 209k during March. If this figure will come close to the actual number coming Friday it could have another adverse effect on gold and silver. Today however is a new day with several new items on the agenda including: Swiss National Bank Forex Reserves, Great Britain Bank Rate & Asset Purchase Plan and U.S. Jobless Claims(update: jobless claims declined by 357k). The Spanish bond sales aren’t going well as expected.
Gold tumbled by 3.46% to $1,614; silver also sharply decreased by 6.68% to $31.04.
The chart below presents the changes of gold and silver during the past several weeks (prices are normalized to March 13th). The chart shows how both metals tumbled down yesterday compared with their slow paced performance during the past several weeks.
On Today’s Agenda
U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Update: this weekly update will refer to he changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on March 31st; this upcoming weekly update may affect the strength of the USD and consequently may affect the direction of commodities;
Swiss National Bank Forex Reserves: the central bank of Switzerland will release the total value of its foreign currencies reserves during March;
Great Britain Bank Rate & Asset Purchase Plan : Bank of England will decide on its basic rate for April 2012 and the progress of its asset purchase plan; as of March the BOE's rate is still flat at 0.5% and the asset purchase plan of £325 billion continues;
Forex / Gold & Silver Market – April
The Euro/USD slipped again on Wednesday by 0.69% to reach 1.3142; furthermore, several other currecines pairs such as AUD/USD and CAD/USD also decreased. If these pairs will change direction and rally today then their path may also positively affect gold and silver. Currently however the Euro/USD is falling (perhaps) over the weak bond sales in Spain.
Gold and silver sharply fell yesterday as the market sentiment shifted not only on bullion market, but also on the rest of the commodities markets including oil market. Today, (all things being equal) there might be a shift back or a market correction to the tumble down from yesterday. The U.S jobless claims might affect the strength of the USD and consequently bullion.
This gold and silver forecast was first presents in Trading NRG
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By: Lior Cohen, M.A. in Economics, Commodities Analyst and Blogger at Trading NRG
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