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Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Weekly Outlook for April 2-6

Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Weekly Outlook for April 2-6

2012-04-02 12:45:00
Lior Cohen, Energy Analyst for Trading NRG,

Here is a short overview and outlook for the week of April 2nd to 6thfor gold and silver; this includes a short description of the main news items, public speeches, and events that may have affect metals during last week.

In this weekly outlook I use charts and a fundamental analysis to examine how the upcoming events and financial publications may affect the direction of gold and silver.

During last week gold slightly increased by 0.4%; furthermore, Silver, much like gold, moderately rose by 0.66%; Gold ended the week at $1,671 /t. oz.

By the end of March both metals ended the month with slight falls on a monthly scale: gold price edged down by 2.3% and silver by 6.23%. During the beginning of the week, the market sentiment has shifted a bit during the beginning of the week after Bernanke’s speech regarding his concerns over the future progress of the labor market. This speech rekindled the speculations of another QE progress. This sentiment, however seems to have dissipated very soon because after the sharp gains for both metals on Monday, they have continued to zigzag throughout the rest of the week.

The Euro edged up again against the USD during last week by 0.61% (on a weekly scale); on the other hand, other "risk" currencies mainly the AUD sharply depreciated against the U.S dollar by 1.1%. Since these currencies pairs are strongly linked with bullion prices they may have been among the reasons for the sharp shifts of gold and silver throughout last week.

The video link on gold and silver prices provides a broad forecast for the main news, public speeches and events that may affect gold and silver during the week of April 2nd to 6th; the video includes reviewing the main reports, events, decisions and news items that will come out during the upcoming week. Some of these reports and events include: U.S. manufacturing PMI, GB rate decision, minutes of last FOMC meeting, GB manufacturing production, DCB rate decision, U.S non-farm payroll report, RBA cash rate decision, EU unemployment rate, G7 meeting, and U.S. jobless claims weekly update (just to name a few).

Here are several reports that are worth noticing that may stir up the financial markets including precious metals markets:

Monday 15:00 – U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI: During February the index edged down to 52.4%. This still means the manufacturing is growing (just at a slightly slower pace);

Tuesday 15:00 – U.S Factory Orders: this report will offer some insight to the progress of the U.S economy and could affect the direction of the U.S dollar;

Tuesday 19:00 – FOMC Meeting Minutes: Following the last FOMC meeting, in which it was decided not to introduce any additional monetary expansion measures, the market promptly reacted as gold and silver sharply fell. The minutes of the FOMC meeting might bring some perspective behind this decision regarding the future steps of the FOMC;

Friday 13:30 – U.S. Non-farm Employment Report: in the recent March report regarding February 2012, the labor market continued to improve as the number of non-farm payroll employment increased by 227k; this report might affect not only the U.S dollar, but also gold and silver prices (see here my last review on the U.S employment report). Following the recent speech of Bernanke about the labor market, if the upcoming non-farm payroll report will continue to show progress it could lower the chances of the Fed introducing any additional stimulus plans and thus may slash the prices of bullion coming Friday.

For further reading:

Gold and Silver Prices Outlook for April 2012

Examining the Gold Price in Light of the U.S Money Base – April Report

By: Lior Cohen, M.A. in Economics, Commodities Analyst and Blogger at Trading NRG

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