Guest Commentary: MarketVisionTV - Hourly AUDUSD – Fibonacci vs. Elliott, No Matter, We’re Long!
Which takes precedence the Fibonacci target or the wave count? That is always a difficult question and the answer will probably vary by analyst. Following the push to new highs of 1.0855 that we have labeled a B wave, we have an aggressive decline to spike the ideal 1.0525 downside swing target. Thus there is a window to clear the former 1.0595 low and down channel resistance to attempt a 38.2 percent upside correction of the third wave to the point of a possible 5 wave extension at 1.0630. As extensions are often doubly retraced that would allow another test of the 1.0510 low as a failed fifth wave and marry the wave count with the Fibonacci target. In fact there is even a chance for a full 38.20 downside target of the entire 98.60 to 1.0855 trend with a drop to 1.0475. However, we still suspect we are ending a corrective decline from the 1.0855 peak that should begin a base building process for a stronger attempt at the 1.1080 peak. Unfortunately only below the 1.0380 medium term pivot point would confirm an early major downside reversal.
By Don Haines, www.MarketVisionTV.com
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.