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Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 02.24.2012

Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 02.24.2012

2012-02-24 16:30:00
Lior Cohen, Energy Analyst for Trading NRG,

Gold and silver sharply increased yesterday and thus are about to complete one of their best performing weeks in February. On the other hand they have started today's trading with slight falls. Today, the U.S. new home sales report will be published and the revised Great Britain GDP for the fourth quarter of 2011.

See here for the complete breakdown on gold and silver daily outlook.

Gold increased on Thursday by 0.85% to $1,786.3; silver also sharply increased by 3.81% to $35.64.

The chart below presents the developments of gold and silver during the month (prices are normalized to January 31st).

Guest_Commentary_Gold_Silver_Daily_Outlook_02.24.2012_body_Gold__24.png, Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 02.24.2012

St. Deviation

During recent months there has been a decline in the volatility of gold and silver as their standard deviations have decreased; as of February they have reached their lowest level in recent months.

Guest_Commentary_Gold_Silver_Daily_Outlook_02.24.2012_body_Standard_deviation__24.png, Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 02.24.2012

On Today's Agenda

U.S. New Home Sales:in the last report (for December 2011), the sales of new homes rose by 2.2% and reached an annual rate of 307,000; if the number of home sales will rise again in the upcoming report, it may further indicate a rally in the U.S real estate market which may also adversely affect gold and silver via the USD.

Forex / Gold & Silver– February

The Euro/USD sharply rose on Thursday by 0.94% to 1.3373; furthermore, the AUD also appreciated against the U.S. dollar by 0.74%. The correlations among AUD, Euro and metals are still strong (the linear correlation between the Euro/USD and gold price is 0.36). Therefore, if the Euro and AUD will continue to rise; it could indicate that metals will continue their rally.

Daily Outlook

Gold and silver resumed their upward trend of recent days and sharply increased along with other commodities and major currencies. The upcoming U.S. new home sales report and GB revised GDP might affect forex markets, which in turn, may affect the direction of bullion.

For further reading:

What Are the Potential Outcomes for Gold in 2012?

By: Lior Cohen, M.A. in Economics, Commodities Analyst and Blogger at Trading NRG

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