Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 02.21.2012
Gold and silver ended the week with little changes as they only slightly declined on Friday. Yesterday, the U.S markets were closed due to President's Day so there weren't any updates on gold and silver. Earlier today, The EU ministers of finance approved €130 billion bailout for Greece. The Euro ended up yesterday in the green as many had anticipated this news. Today, China flash Manufacturing PMI report will come out along with Canada's Retails Sales and Great Britain Net borrowing.
EU Finance Ministers Approved Greek Bailout
The leading Euro Zone ministers of finance approved this morning after many hours of talks and discussions the second bailout plan for Greece and thus prevented Greece from reaching default on its debt in March. The ministers agreed on the measures the Greeks will have to implement in order to cuts its debt to 120.5% of its GDP by 2020. In the mean time, the Euro is rising, which could mean traders feel some confidence in the recent bailout plan.
On Today's Agenda
China flash Manufacturing PMI: this index will cover 800 companies in 20 industries in China; according to the HSBC Manufacturing PMI report regarding December 2011 the Manufacturing PMI slightly rose and reached 48.8; this index indicates the changes in China's manufacturing sectors growth rate; if this upward trend will continue, this may also positively affect metals;
Canada's Retails Sales: This report might affect the direction of CAD, which is strongly correlated with commodities. In the recent report regarding November, retails sales slightly rose by 0.3;
AUD / Gold & Silver– February
The Euro/USD rose on Monday by 0.78% to 1.3243; furthermore, the AUD also appreciated against the U.S. dollar by 0.46%. The correlation between AUD and gold is still robust (the linear correlation between AUD and gold is 0.63 over the past month, and with silver price it's 0.64). If the Euro and AUD will continue their upward trend today, it could indicate that gold and silver will also rally.
Gold and silver didn't rise or fall during last week but this week this standoff could change: the recent developments regarding the Greek bailout, which was approved by the EU ministers of finance could help lift the Euro and thus drag along gold and silver. Finally, the upcoming reports to be published today especially regarding China might influence bullion traders.
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By: Lior Cohen, M.A. in Economics, Commodities Analyst and Blogger at Trading NRG
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