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Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 02.16.2012

Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 02.16.2012

2012-02-16 17:12:00
Lior Cohen, Energy Analyst for Trading NRG,
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Gold and silver continue to shift from gains to losses on daily basis. Yesterday precious metals ended slightly above Tuesday's price levels. Today, there are many reports to be published including: U.S. Housing Starts, U.S. jobless claims, U.S. PPI and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.

See here for the rest of the gold and silver daily forecast.

Gold slightly rose yesterday by 0.61% to $1,728.1; silver also slightly increased by 0.18% to $33.41. During February, gold declined by 0.7% while silver rose by 0.44%.

The chart below shows the changes of gold and silver during February (prices are normalized to January 31st).

Guest_Commentary_Gold_Silver_Daily_Outlook_02.16.2012_body_Gold__16.png, Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 02.16.2012

The Euro/USD slightly declined again yesterday by 0.52% to 1.3066. The AUD on the other hand slightly appreciated. During recent months there were strong linear correlations among the EURO and AUD and metals. If the Euro and AUD will trade down, it could indicate that metals will also decrease.

Despite the slight shifts in the ratio between gold and silver, their linear correlation is still robust and positive.

Guest_Commentary_Gold_Silver_Daily_Outlook_02.16.2012_body_Correlation__16.png, Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 02.16.2012

On Today's Agenda

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey gives an estimate for the progress of the US economy as it measures the manufacturing conditions. In the last January survey, the report showed the growth rate moderately rose to +7.3 in January 2012. This index might affect gold assuming there will be a sharp shift in the survey's outcome (see here last report);

U.S. Housing Starts: the U.S Census Bureau will publish today the recent developments in U.S housing starts; this figure was historically correlated with gold price – as housing starts rise, gold tended to fall the following day; in the recent report, the adjusted annual rate declined by 4.1% (for the recent review); if the housing starts will decline again, it might indicate that gold will rise.

Outlook

The upcoming reports regarding the U.S. might offer some perspective on the progress of the U.S. economy. If these reports will show some progress it might trade down gold and silver.

For further reading:

What Are the Potential Outcomes for Silver Price in 2012?

By: Lior Cohen, M.A. in Economics, Commodities Analyst and Blogger at Trading NRG

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