News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • 🇳🇿 Interest Rate Decision Actual: 0.25% Expected: 0.25% Previous: 0.25%
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.67%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 80.40%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
  • Heads Up:🇳🇿 Interest Rate Decision due at 02:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 0.25% Previous: 0.25%
  • S&P 500 Index Hits Record Highs as Bond Yields Drop, Nikkei 225 Falls as Machine Orders Contract
  • The British Pound's technical posture against the Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar and Swiss Franc presents near-term levels that may dictate upcoming price action. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:
  • (Market Alert) Singapore Dollar Gains on MAS, GDP Beat. Will USD/SGD Breach Key Support? $USDSGD #SGD #MAS #Singapore #GDP
  • The Swiss Franc has positioned itself against key levels versus the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and Euro over the past week. Where next for AUD/CHF, NZD/CHF and EUR/CHF? Find out from @FxWestwater here:
  • Heads Up:🇦🇺 Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (APR) due at 00:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 111.8
  • 🇸🇬 GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv (Q1) Actual: 2.0% Previous: 3.8%
  • $USDSGD sinking to its lowest since April 7th/9th after #Singapore 1Q GDP surprised higher #MAS also left policy largely unchanged The passing of key event risk likely opened the door for #SGD to advance following #USD weakness on Wall Street (full alert to follow!)
Guest Commentary: Oil Prices Weekly Outlook February 13-17

Guest Commentary: Oil Prices Weekly Outlook February 13-17

Lior Cohen, Energy Analyst for Trading NRG,

Oil, much like other commodities such as gold and silver, continued to moderately climb up as it has been doing in recent weeks. The big news for oil was the sharp increase in the premium of Brent over WTI as the premium reached during the week the highest level since November. Will this premium continue to increase? Let's examine the oil market the main news items and events that may affect the direction of oil in the upcoming week.

On Friday, February 10th oil price (WTI) declined by 1.17% and reached $98.67/b; Brent also decreased by 0.99% to $117.47/b; during last week, WTI rose by 0.85% and Brent by 2.79%.

In the chart below are the changes of WTI and Brent during February (prices are normalized to January 31st).

Guest_Commentary_Oil_Prices_Weekly_Outlook_February_13-17_body_oil_price_13-17.png, Guest Commentary: Oil Prices Weekly Outlook February 13-17

Premium of Brent over WTI

The difference between Brent and WTI sharply increased during last week and reached on Friday to $18.80. During February the premium sharply rose by 52.25%. The ongoing tensions between Iran and the West including Iran's threat to close Strait of Hormuz, where nearly 20% of the world's crude oil is passing through, might keep contributing to the rise of the Brent premium.

OPEC Production Remained Unchanged in January

According to the recent OPEC monthly report, OPEC oil production remained unchanged during January compared with December's 2011 oil production levels. IEA revised down again its projection for the global oil demand in 2012. The oil inventories of OECD dropped by 40.8 million bbl. The oil stockpiles are still well below the 5-year average for the sixth consecutive month. These news items may have been among the factors keeping oil high and expanding the gap between Brent and WTI.

Main Oil Related News Items

Tuesday–U.S. Retail Sales for January 2012: in the recent report, the retail sales, when controlling for the price changes, slightly increased by 0.1%; gasoline stations sales decreased by 1.6% in December, but were 8.9% above sales in December 2010; this report could signal the changes in U.S's gasoline demand (see here my review of the recent report);

Wednesday– Minutes of recent FOMC Meeting: Following the recent FOMC announcement to extend the pledge of keeping the interest rates low until late 2014, the minutes of the meeting might provide some perspective behind this decision regarding the next steps of the FOMC;

Thursday– U.S. Producer Price Index: This report will present the progress in the PPI during January 2012, i.e. the inflation rate from producers' stand point. In the last report regarding December this index for finished goods slightly fell by 0.1% compared with November's rate but rose by 4.8% in the past 12 months; this news might affect commodities markets;

Thursday– Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: In the January survey, the Index moderately rose to +7.3. This index might affect not only the USD but also oil market (see here last report);

Oil Stockpiles – Rose Last Week

U.S. oil stockpiles increased during last week by 3.8 million barrels and reached 1,755.6 million barrels. The current oil stocks are still 49.035 million barrels below oil stockpiles levels recorded during the same week in 2011.

The upcoming report will come out on Wednesday, February 15th and will refer to the week ending on February 10th.

Forex and Oil– February

The EURO/USD exchange rate slightly increased during last week by 0.30%; the AUD/USD also increased by 1.32%. There are strong linear correlations among leading exchange rates (EURO/USD, AUD/USD, CAD/USD and oil prices). If the USD will further depreciate against the Euro, CAD and AUD during the week, it might also pressure up oil prices.

Guest_Commentary_Oil_Prices_Weekly_Outlook_February_13-17_body_Correlations__13-17_2012.png, Guest Commentary: Oil Prices Weekly Outlook February 13-17

Oil Outlook:

The premium of Brent over WTI continued to rise during last week. This may have been due to the high demand for heating oil in Europe because of the cold weather and the tensions between Iran and Europe. If the cold weather will continue and the tensions regarding Iran will remain high, oil prices will probably maintain their high level, and resulting in further widening the gap between Brent and WTI.

In the upcoming week there are several news items that might affect the direction of oil prices including the U.S. retail sales report, minutes of the last FOMC meeting and Philly Fed index.

I speculate that during the third week of February, WTI will trade in the range of $96-$103 and Brent between $114 and $121.

For further reading:

Gold and Silver Prices Weekly Outlook for February 13-17

By: Lior Cohen, M.A. in Economics, Commodities Analyst and Blogger at Trading NRG

Would you like to see more third-party contributors on DailyFX? For questions and comments, please send them to

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.