Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 02.01.2012
Gold and silver ended January with very moderate changes as silver slightly declined and gold rose. The Euro also didn't do much yesterday as the market still awaits for headlines from the Greek debt negotiations. These events might affect the direction of metals. Today, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI will be published; the U.S. non-farm payroll ADP estimate; the Australian Trade Balance report.
For the rest of the gold and silver prices daily report for February 1stGold slightly rose on Tuesday by 0.35% to $1,740.4; silver slipped by 0.14% to $33.79.
The chart below presents their changes during the month so far (the metals are normalized to 100= January 13th).
On Today's Agenda
U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to the manufacturing sector for January. In December, the index increased by 1.2 points to 53.9%; this index might affect the forex market (see here a review of last report);
Australian Trade Balance: The upcoming report will refer to the changes in December. In November, the export of non-monetary gold sharply increased by $358 million (32%); if the gold exports will continue to rise in December, it might suggest a rise in demand for non-monetary gold that could explain the recent rally in gold (see here last report);
Forex & Metals – February
The Euro/USD slightly fell on Tuesday by 0.46% to reach 1.3083 – this was the second consecutive day the Euro traded down; today's progress in the Greek debt negotiations and the Portuguese debt sales might influence the direction of the Euro; if the Euro will rally from its recent tumble it could indicate that metals will continue their upward trend.
Outlook and Analysis
Gold and silver ended January with very little changes despite their sharp rally throughout most of the month. On the first day of February this rally might continue if there won't be a substantial shift in the fundamentals (e.g. the upcoming news and reports won't show shocking changes). Nevertheless, I speculate, the bullish sentiment will start to subside.
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By: Lior Cohen, M.A. in Economics, Commodities Analyst and Blogger at Trading NRG
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