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Guess Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 12.22.2011

Guess Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 12.22.2011

2011-12-22 17:31:00
Lior Cohen, Energy Analyst for Trading NRG,

Gold and silver changed direction and moderately declined yesterday, even though other commodities such as oil rose on Wednesday. Today, the U.S. final Q3 GDP will be published, GB's GDP of third quarter and U.S. Unemployment Claims.

Gold slightly slipped on Wednesday by 0.25% to $1,613.6; silver also declined by 0.97% to $29.25. During December gold decreased by 7.8% and silver by 10.8%.

Guest_Commentary_Gold_Silver_Daily_Outlook_12.22.2011_body_Gold__22.png, Guess Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 12.22.2011

The correlation between gold and silver is still high in December as it was in previous months.

Guest_Commentary_Gold_Silver_Daily_Outlook_12.22.2011_body_Correlation__22_2011.png, Guess Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 12.22.2011

U.S Existing Home Sales Rose in November

The U.S existing homes sales slightly rose in November by 4%; this news coincides with the recent sharp gains in the housing starts, which was announced yesterday.

On Today's Agenda

Great Britain Updated GDP 3Q 2011: This will be the final projection of the third quarter real GDP of GB. In the previous estimate of the GDP for the 3Q2011 grew by 0.5%; if the final rate will change, it may affect the GBP/USD;

Final U.S GDP 3Q 2011 Report: This will also be the final estimate of U.S. GDP growth rate in the third quarter. In the preliminary estimates the 3Q2011 GDP growth rate was 2.0%, compared with 1.3% increase at 2Q2011. This shows a slightly higher growth rate for the US's GDP even though the recent Q3 growth rate estimate was revised down; another revision may also affect traders (for the second estimate of 3Q GDP).

U.S. Unemployment Claims:initial claims decreased by 19,000 to 366,000 claims for the week ending on December 10th; the number of insured unemployment slightly inclined by 4k to 3.603million during the week of December 3rd.

Forex / Gold & Silver– December Update

The Euro/USD changed direction again and slipped on Wednesday by 0.28% to reach 1.3047. On the other hand, other currencies such as the CAD slightly appreciated against the USD. If major currencies will appreciate against the U.S. dollar, it may also affect gold and silver to bounce back.

U.S. Treasuries / Gold & Silver– December Update

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield inclined again on Wednesday by 0.04 percent points to 1.98%; during December the 10 year treasury yield dropped by 0.10 percent point. Furthermore, during December there were positive correlations among the daily percent changes of U.S. 10 year notes yield and gold and silver (0.245 and 0.503, respectively). If the LT U.S. treasury yield will further rise, it may also continue to pressure up gold and silver. The graph below shows the development and strong relation between gold and U.S 10 year treasury yield during December.

Guest_Commentary_Gold_Silver_Daily_Outlook_12.22.2011_body_Chart_Gold_PDaily_Treasury_Yield_December.png, Guess Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 12.22.2011

Gold and Silver Outlook:

Gold and silver continue to zigzag and changed direction again as they both moderately declined yesterday. The rally in other commodities prices mainly crude oil prices and Forex markets (such as CAD and AUD) and most American Stock indexes (including S&P500) didn't coincide with yesterday's falls of precious metals. The upcoming news from Europe and U.S. in regards to the final GDP might stir up the markets if there will be substantial changes; otherwise if the rest of the commodities will continue to trade up, U.S. LT treasuries yields will rise, and major currencies will also continue to appreciate against the USD, gold and silver are likely to follow and bounce back.

For further reading:

Gold and Silver Prices Weekly Outlook for December 19-23 Weekly

Outlook for 19-23 December

By: Lior Cohen, Energy Analyst for Trading NRG

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