Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Prices Monthly Outlook
Gold and silver didn't do much during November after they had sharply inclined during October. Gold ended the month slightly rising while silver moderately declining. What were the main factors that may have affected the development of gold and silver in November? Part of it might have to do with the high anxiety in the financial markets revolving the economic progress of the U.S. and the European debt crisis. So what is next for gold and silver prices in December 2011? Let's examine the metals market for November and provide a quick outlook for gold and silver for December 2011.
Gold and Silver Prices November 2011
Gold and silver started the month of November with moderate rises and as the month progressed their prices shifted to falls.
Gold ended November with a 1.5% increase while silver declined by 4.5%.
The table below divides November into two parts with the breaking point at November 11th; during the first part of November, gold rose by 3.6%, while silver slightly inclined by 1.0%. But during the second part of November, silver declined by 5.4%, and gold by 2.1%.
During the first part of November, the USD slightly appreciated against the Euro, AUD and CAD, in which the first two currencies are usually strongly correlated with gold and silver; during the second part of November, the USD appreciated by a higher rate against the Euro and moderately depreciated against the AUD; this shift might partly explain the sharper fall of gold and silver during the second part of the month.
The chart below presents the changes in gold and silver during November, in which the prices were normalized to 100 on October 31st 2011.
The next chart shows the development of the ratio of gold to silver during November; the ratio had an upward trend during most of the month. The ratio rose as silver underperformed gold. In the last week of November the ratio stabilized around the 53-54 mark.
Here are several factors that may have affected gold and silver to rise during November:
- The failure of the US super committee to cut the US federal budget;
- The gains in the U.S. stock market indexes during the end of the month (see below);
- The growth in the U.S. federal deficit during October 2011 by $98 billion raised the level of uncertainty in the market;
- The rally of the Euro during the end of the month as the Federal Reserve along with other central banks provided some additional ease to struggling EU banks by reducing the US dollar based loans interest rates; this helped pull up the bullion prices;
- Shifts in the sentiment of traders as traditional "safe haven" investments such as the US treasuries were traded down mainly during the end of the month.
By: Lior Cohen, Energy Analyst for Trading NRG
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.